KC Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has the second-best MVP odds through 14 weeks of the 2022 NFL regular season, though the race is still a tight one.
The National Football League’s MVP race remains tight with just three weeks remaining in the 2022 NFL season.
Despite emerging victorious against the Denver Broncos, Patrick Mahomes had an uncharacteristic performance to the tune of throwing three interceptions. Naturally, fans around the league and sports media figures alike quickly began to announce that Mahomes’ MVP campaign was over, and many crowned Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts as the new front-runner.
Fortunately for Chiefs Kingdom, however, there is still football left to be played and this debate is far from over if Patrick Mahomes has anything to say about it.
Who are the MVP candidates?
The top five contenders still fighting to make their MVP case are, unsurprisingly, all quarterbacks. However, what does stick out as noteworthy is the fact that they’re all young guns. Believe it or not, Mahomes at 27 years old is the eldest among the group. The remaining contenders include Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Tua Tagovailoa.
Let’s take a gander at the bottom feeders in this unit. Tua is currently projected at having the fifth-highest odds through 14 weeks and sits at +5000. He has taken a tremendous step forward and has silenced even his most vocal critics, though his numbers don’t quite elevate him enough to be viewed as a favorite. Admittedly his lowered numbers are due in no small part to missing crucial playing time as the result of a concussion he sustained earlier in the year.
The player with the fourth-best MVP odds is Josh Allen with +1600. Allen entered the year with the highest odds as the hype around both him and the Bills was unquenchable through the early weeks of the season. However, losing to the Jets and the Vikings lowered Allen’s stock and he has failed to return to the top spot ever since.
Joe Burrow currently possesses the third-best odds for winning MVP this season with +650. The Bengals victory against the Chiefs in Week 13 increased his odds greatly and forced his name into the MVP consideration, though once again his numbers are edged out by the top two candidates in Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts.
The case for Hurts
The success of Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles has been one of the biggest surprises this season. Hurts, who showed flashes of potential in his rookie year, has developed his game immensely and he currently holds the best MVP odds with -110. Perhaps one of the biggest factors supporting Hurts’ claim is the Eagles holding the best record in football at 12-1, which is a vast improvement for a team that finished only 9-8 last year.
Sure, the record is impressive and there is no denying that. But what do the stats tell us? To this point, Hurts has thrown for 3,157 yards which ranks only 10th in the league, though this dual-threat QB has also run for 689 yards bringing his total to 3,846. He has accounted for 32 total touchdowns with 22 through the air and 10 on the ground, with his 32 total touchdowns being the second most of any player. Additionally, Hurts has only thrown an astonishingly low 3 interceptions the entire year—the lowest among MVP candidates.
Furthermore, Hurts ranks fourth in completion percentage with 68.0%, fifth in touchdown percentage with 5.7%, and fourth in total QBR with a 70.4 rating. The case for Hurts is a strong one. He has the record, the narrative, and impressive numbers to solidify his candidacy for claiming his status as the most valuable player in the league. Let’s pump the breaks, however, as there is still a former MVP that demands consideration.
The case for Mahomes
Though no longer considered the favorite, Mahomes still boasts the second-best MVP odds at +150. Mahomes’ errant and unexpected turnovers against the Broncos lowered his stock a bit, though his overall numbers still give him a formidable shot at reclaiming his title.
To start, the Kansas City Chiefs currently sit at 10-3. Mahomes has thrown for a league-leading 4,160 yards and ran for 280 yards, yielding an insane 4,440 total. He has thrown for a league-leading 33 touchdowns and has run in a couple as well, cementing him at the top with 35 total scores, though his 11 interceptions don’t exactly do him any favors.
Additionally, Mahomes’ completion percentage isn’t the most jaw-dropping stat as he currently sits at a pedestrian 65.8%, ranking 15th in the league. He does however lead the league in touchdown percentage at 6.5%, and total QBR at 77.9.
A comparison of the top dogs
So here we currently sit. Both resumes have been impressive, but who has the upper hand? Hurts has a better record and more impressive numbers in terms of interceptions and completion percentage. However, Mahomes has been better in terms of total touchdowns, total yards, total QBR, and touchdown percentage.
Though this comparison seems rather even, it’s also important for fans to look at the bigger picture. The Eagles bolstered their receiving corps by acquiring A.J. Brown while the Chiefs lost the most explosive player in the NFL via the Tyreek Hill trade. Rather than floundering, Mahomes has been instrumental in forging KC’s new offensive identity while still putting up MVP-caliber numbers. Additionally, Hurts has greatly benefitted from the Eagle’s strong running game, which ranks the second best in the NFL in terms of yards per game. Meanwhile, Mahomes hasn’t had the same luxury as the Chiefs rank only 18th in that category.
Despite what the oddsmakers say, this race is neck and neck. The next few weeks will ultimately determine who will take home the honor and Mahomes will continue to do what he does best through competing harder than anyone else on the field and leading his team to victory. Nothing is over until the Grim Reaper says so.