The Chiefs are headed to the Mile High City this Sunday for their first game of the year against the Broncos. Let’s look at the best prop bets for Week 14.
Luckily for Chiefs Kingdom, the latest heartbreaking blow in the Kansas City vs Cincinnati saga is padded by a game against the Broncos, rather than being followed up by a seven-month hiatus from football.
For all intents and purposes, this week’s game in Denver should be an indisputable, irrefutable absolute beatdown of the Donkeys. Denver’s defense is, respectably, the third-best in the league in yards allowed per game (304), and the second-best in points allowed (17). However, the Chiefs were able to score 44 points on the heels of 529 total yards of offense against San Fransisco—the only team ahead of Denver in both categories. Considering the Broncos’ complete inability to play offensive football with the ghost of Russell Wilson under center, this thing really ought to be lopsided.
The Chiefs are just 4-8 against the spread this season, and Fanduel Sportsbook’s line reflects the challenge that the Broncos’ defense presents. Kansas City is a -9.5 point favorite, and the total is set at 43.5. There is surely some money to be made there, but here are my three favorite prop bets of the week.
1. Jerick McKinnon OVER 16.5 receiving yards (-114)
Jerick McKinnon has been targeted three or more times in seven games this season and has gone over 17 yards receiving on each of those occasions. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the IR, and Isiah Pacheco emerging as a legitimate bell cow back, McKinnon has grown into the favorite pass-catching option out of the backfield. Denver’s secondary is stout, and there should be many-a-time when Patrick Mahomes ends up looking to the flat for positive yardage. I do expect the Chiefs to effectively move the football this week, but the running backs—and Jerick McKinnon specifically—will play a huge role in that.
2. Russell Wilson OVER 8.5 rushing yards (-114)
The summary of pregame discourse for this one has simply been how good the Broncos’ DBs are, and the challenge they will present to Patrick Mahomes. Giving any similar praise to the Chiefs’ personnel would be hyperbolic, but the reality is this: you could scatter the gridiron with mannequins from Baby Gap and Russell Wilson would still be ranked 31st in completion percentage. Denver’s offensive line is Swiss cheese and Steve Spagnuolo will have a hay day this Sunday. I expect to see Wilson sacked three times, and the pressure to be unrelenting. He has to scramble for nine yards this week. Free money.
3. Alternate points total UNDER 33.5 (+360)
Through 12 games this season, the average points total of Chiefs’ games is 51.67, and that of the Broncos’ games is 30.91. Average those two out, and you get 41.29, safely under Fanduel’s total of 43.5. There’s evidence to suggest that the Chiefs’ offense will score no matter what, and conversely, there is evidence to suggest that hardly anyone can score when the Broncos are on the field. Something has to give between those two truths, and we can uncover what exactly that will be through some degenerate delineation.
Chiefs games vs AFC West opponents—two against the Chargers, one against the Raiders—have featured an average of 55.66 points. Broncos games vs AFC West opponents—two against the Raiders, one against the Chargers—have featured an average of 42.66 points. Too many similarities to ignore. The Chiefs and Broncos have each already sized up the rest of the division, they’ve gotten into higher scoring affairs than their average games vs the rest of the league, and both of their average totals vs divisional opponents carry a decimal of .66—keep this in mind.
I believe it’s high-time we see a classic smash-mouth AFC West matchup. With Denver’s secondary so stout, and Isiah Pacheco’s emergence as a ground-and-pound back we can assume a lower-scoring affair. Let’s say about half of what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from this Chiefs’ offense. My final score prediction is Chiefs 24, Broncos 9. 24+9=33, exactly half of 66. +360 odds on Fanduel to bring this logic full-circle.
Call it confirmation bias, call it stupid, call it whatever you want. I’ve got a good feeling about these three. A $100 wager on these three props parlayed yields a $1,646 payout. Let’s all be winners today, and let’s go Chiefs!