AFC playoff picture, Week 13: Chiefs sit atop NFL standings

In Week 12, the Cincinnati Bengals traveled to Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans. The Miami Dolphins hosted the Houston Texans. The Jacksonville Jaguars saw the Baltimore Ravens come to town. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts.

The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots went on the road on Thanksgiving to NFC North opponents, the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, and Kansas City Chiefs all hosted NFC teams, and the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, and Los Angeles Chargers all went on the road to face NFC opponents.

Here is what the AFC Standings look like after Week 12:

Before the start of Week 12, the Kansas City Chiefs were the favorites to come out of the AFC and advance to Super Bowl LVII. FiveThirtyEight (QB Adjusted) had the Chiefs as the team with the best chance to win the Super Bowl out of all teams in the NFL with a 22% chance to win it all prior to Week 12. After Kansas City, the Buffalo Bills were at 11%, the Tennessee Titans were at 7%, the Baltimore Ravens were at 6%, the Miami Dolphins were at 4%, and the Cincinnati Bengals were at 3%.

The Buffalo Bills survived an upset scare by the Detroit Lions and won on a Thanksgiving thriller. Mac Jones’ strong performance wasn’t enough as the New England Patriots defense was gashed by the Minnesota Vikings’ offense in a Thanksgiving Night defeat. The Cincinnati Bengals pulled out a victory over the Tennessee Titans in Nashville. The Miami Dolphins dominated the Houston Texans to move to 8-3. The Jacksonville Jaguars upset the Baltimore Ravens after a brilliant game-winning drive by Trevor Lawrence.

The Mike White-led New York Jets crushed the Justin Fields-less Chicago Bears. The Denver Broncos got embarrassed by Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers in a 23-10 loss. The Cleveland Browns beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in overtime. The Las Vegas Raiders beat the Seattle Seahawks in a great game in the Pacific Northwest. The Los Angeles Chargers bested the Cardinals after a clutch two-point conversion. The Kansas City Chiefs beat the LA Rams behind a strong defensive performance. The Pittsburgh Steelers topped the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football.

The Bills may have snapped out of the funk they’ve been in for the past two games but their defense looks beatable. If the Patriots are unable to get it together on defense, they have little hope to make the playoffs this season, let alone winning at least one playoff game. The Bengals’ run game came alive ahead of a showdown against Kansas City, while the Titans’ hopes for a #1 seed took a devastating blow. The Dolphins’ offense is proving to be one of the deadliest in football but the Texans look like the worst team in the NFL.

This week may have been the start of the breakout for Trevor Lawrence, while the Ravens’ dreams of being the #1 seed took a hit. Benching Zach Wilson may have been the best decision the Jets could have made. I don’t know what else needs to be said about the dreadful Broncos offense. The Browns will finally get Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback next week. Josh Jacobs is in the midst of an all-pro caliber season for the Raiders. The Chargers kept their playoff hopes alive after their win in the desert. The Chiefs played a strong defensive game and now turn their attention to the Cincinnati Bengals in their last challenging game of the regular season. The Kenny Pickett-George Pickens connection could be something special for years to come, while this could be Matt Ryan’s final NFL season as a starting quarterback.

After Week 12, seven teams in the AFC have a losing record and nine teams have a winning record. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Kansas City Chiefs remain the team with the best chance to win the Super Bowl in the AFC with a 23% chance to win it all. After Kansas City, the Buffalo Bills are at 12%, and then the Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, and Cincinnati Bengals are all at 4%.

In the race for the #1 seed in the AFC, per FiveThirtyEight, the Chiefs have the best chance to finish atop the conference in the regular season standings at a 65% chance, with the Bills second at 21%. After Kansas City/Buffalo, the following teams are the Dolphins and Bengals at 8% and 4%, respectively.

The Chiefs are the favorites in the AFC to not only earn the #1 seed but win the Lamar Hunt Trophy and advance to Super Bowl LVII. Next week against Cincinnati is critical for them as it is the final “difficult” game on their regular season schedule (for NFL standards). If they can win and climb to 10-2, the only thing stopping them from owning home-field advantage in the playoffs is themselves as they need to clean up their special teams and continue to improve on defense. The Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, Ravens, and Titans aren’t that far behind them so they can’t afford to be careless if they want to win another ring.