Chiefs Kingdom betting guide to NFL’s Week 11 action

KANSAS CITY, MO - OCTOBER 06: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts on the bench in the third quarter during the 19-13 loss to the Indianapolis Colts at Arrowhead Stadium on October 6, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MO - OCTOBER 06: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts on the bench in the third quarter during the 19-13 loss to the Indianapolis Colts at Arrowhead Stadium on October 6, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Hey Chiefs Kingdom, get in on Sunday’s NFL action with some of the best bets we see for Week 11 as we all wait for Sunday Night Football.

I spent a little bit of time before making my picks just buzzing through the Kansas City Chiefs schedule this year as well as the last few seasons. While I was certainly aware this was happening prior to now, just looking at the fact that the Chiefs are playing in their 5th primetime game of the 2022 season in Week 11 gave me some pause. I tried to wrap my brain around it, but am still having trouble. Then it hit me, and I think a lot of people can relate to the concept of passively contributing to something.

For instance, has your significant other ever gotten mad at you for I don’t know, getting the bathroom floor too wet after you get out of the shower? Leaving the toilet seat up? Specifically for us dudes, these are behaviors that seem completely logical, but they’re not met with as much warmth from our female counterparts. Maybe at work you realize over a couple of years you’re busier and busier and the company has about twice as many clients as it once did, but you don’t think about the fact that you’ve been an integral part of that.

Well, when your quarterback is an alien and the team around said QB is guided by one of the best coaches in league history and they continue to win games, you might not realize it as it’s happening, but that’s going to give you a hell of a lot of opportunities to show up in primetime slots throughout the course of the NFL season. So here we are, Chiefs fans. We may not have realized that we were becoming the most spoiled fan base in the entire league, but I think that might be where we’ve found ourselves. When notable Patriots fans are saying that they “don’t like” Chiefs fans, I have to first question that individual’s self awareness before simply smiling smugly and moving on.

Enough victory lapping. Let’s take a look at the picks for this week. Let me start by saying this is an absolutely ugly board. Vegas is making it hard this week. And sadly, the same gambling trends—road dogs and unders—continue to track as they have for the first 10 weeks of the season. I have no new trend information to present this week, which made the picks extremely hard. I’m going back to the old me: The bet from the gut me, the guy that retired from gambling not because I lost too much money, but just because I lost bets at such a staggering frequency (low risk, low damage… but still) that I began to wonder if I was just a loser. I don’t think I am, but gambling can change brain chemicals just a little.

So here goes nothing. So far on Sunday picks this year, we’re sitting at a nice little 9-4-1. I mentioned in the Thursday night picks post that my mixing in prop betting was probably going to tank my record, and it did to an extent. Credit me for the self-awareness. Going 1-3 in those bets brings my totals to a 10-7-1 standing on the year which is not bad and not good. It’ll work. And as I astutely predicted on Thursday I’m not going into this week’s picks with the false bravado of betting with my chest and soon could be under .500 on the season.

Again, I know I’m an idiot but I still do idiot stuff. Is it a blessing or a curse?

Buffalo Bills -7.5 vs Cleveland Browns

The Bills have to dominate this game, right? Back-to-back losses in which the Jets turned Josh Allen over late to seal a close win and the weirdest game of the year last week against Minnesota should have Buffalo hyper-focused on getting back on track. Allen hasn’t looked great since his elbow got mangled a little against the Jets, but he can still whip the ball, and being indoors in Detroit this weekend should help the Bills’ offense get back on track against a Cleveland defense that just got absolutely torched last week by Tua and the Dolphins.

The one thing that could break this bet? If Nick Chubb gets 20 or more carries. The Browns are 15-7 since 2018 and 3-0 in 2022 when they give Chubb the rock at a clip of 20+ per game. In those games this year he has 355 rushing yards and 3 TD on the ground. If Cleveland decides they want to do that, Buffalo could be in trouble. Hats off to those that got the over 40.5 in this game earlier this week before it got switched to Detroit. You got a line from a game being played in a blizzard moved to a dome. Go buy a lotto ticket if you haven’t already.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons Over 48.5

If you haven’t paid attention to the Bears the last few weeks, you should start. Justin Fields has been on a tear and it looks like Chicago’s coaching staff finally opened their eyes and realized how to call plays for a dual-threat quarterback. More importantly, they have been an overs factory hitting 4 weeks in a row. With neither one of these teams having much defense to write home about, I like that streak to continue to 5 in a row, even if Falcons games have done the exact opposite and gone under in 4 straight. Live a little.

Minnesota Vikings +1.5 vs Dallas Cowboys

How do the Vikings go from beating the Bills on the road to being a home underdog against the Cowboys? Make that make sense.

Sure, it’s a Kirk Cousins non-noon game and that’s always a toss-up, but it’s not like this is a primetime game. It’s a matinee. The Vikings feel like a team that has some weird voodoo magic happening this year and I think Justin Jefferson’s Louisiana ties are to blame. Much like the Bengals’ unexpected Super Bowl run in 2021 behind Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burreaux, Jefferson has some bayou wildness going down in the Twin Cities and it wouldn’t shock me to see the Vikings make a run at a Super Bowl in a softer-than-cotton NFC in 2022.

It would surprise me a heck of a lot less if the Vikings didn’t beat the Cowboys at home on Sunday. Dallas is a good team with a good defense, but they’re coming off of a confusing loss to a pretty bad Packers team. We’ll see which Dallas team shows up, but it might not matter if the Vikings are in fact the class of the NFC. I’d play Vikings moneyline in this one with better odds. at +106.

Washington Commanders -3 at Houston Texans

Taylor Heinecke is a fun player to watch. The Commanders’ stunning upset over the Eagles on Monday Night Football was an absolute blast to take in after a stress-free Sunday slate where the Chiefs waltzed and the Raiders, Chargers, Broncos, and Bills all lost. God that was a great day, wasn’t it? Anyway, The Commanders knocking off the NFL’s last undefeated team was a huge boost for a young team that will get another boost this week with Chase Young coming back off of IR. Houston is scrappy, but just really not good. I like Washington to win this one pretty easily.

There you have it. These will probably all backfire in my face, but it’s worth a shot. One bonus pick that is close to the heart for all of us, and a fun fact that blows my mind – Chiefs moneyline tonight at the Chargers. Death, taxes, and Patrick Mahomes winning games in November and December. 24-0 in the last 2 years and that hasn’t been done since Tricky Dick was in office.

Note: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Schedule