Bills vs Chiefs predictions: AA staff picks for Week 6

The winner will be in the driver’s seat of the AFC race, and will also hold a 1.5-game lead over the loser. So there is much at stake.

The game billed as “The Rematch” is set to kick off today at Arrowhead Stadium at 3:25 pm CST (The notion of the rematch is an interesting one. Wasn’t last year’s divisional round game the rematch? Ah, well). The 4-1 Buffalo Bills are in town to face the 4-1 Kansas City Chiefs, and the winner will officially sport the best record in the conference entering Week 7.

One thing that should be stated about this highly-touted game is the reminder that these early-season games really only matter in the win-loss column. Whether the winner squeaks one out today or overpowers the opponent handily, it won’t affect the outlook for a future matchup in this year’s playoffs. If these two teams do meet again later this season, it will still be an enticing one for everyone involved, regardless of what happens in this game.

The importance here is the advantage gained in the standings, and that’s that. The winner will be in control of the AFC race, and also have a 1.5-game lead over the loser. So there is much at stake.

Each team will be missing some key players in their secondary, and that should play into the way each team defends the opposing offense. Kansas City will be missing Rashad Fenton, Bryan Cook, and probably Trent McDuffie. Buffalo will be missing Tre’Davious White and Micah Hyde, and others such as Jordan Poyer, Christian Benford, and Kaiir Elam were still nursing injuries this week.

Writer recap

Every writer correctly projected a win last week, but no one foresaw a game in which the Chiefs were bound to lose, then bound to win, then on the brink of losing, and then won by a final score of 30-29. Patrick Allen was the closest to the final score with his 30-21 prediction. This week, our staff is divided 50/50 on who we think will get the win. Here are this week’s picks for the Week 6 game against the Bills:

Adam Best (4-1)
The Bills actually didn’t look so hot against the two talented teams they’ve played — the Dolphins and Ravens. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have played their best football against their strongest opponents. They deliver here.
Chiefs 31, Bills 28

Bransen Gibson (4-1)
After a shocker against Indianapolis, KC’s offense started to click. With Mahomes at his magical best and facing a banged-up Buffalo secondary, I think the Chiefs will put up some serious points. Buffalo’s offense is just as potent, but I think KC’s defense will be able to hold them just enough for the Chiefs to earn a narrow victory.
Chiefs 31, Bills 28

Anthony Hatton (4-1)
No matter what happens in this game, the only thing that really matters for both teams will be settled in the playoffs. Getting the # 1 seed means not having to play as many games in the postseason. Honestly, the only way to predict this game is based off of the average scores of the last 4 meetings. The Chiefs have won three of the last four. Arrowhead Stadium will show up loud and ready. That home-field advantage might just give the extra nudge needed to top a strong Bills team.
Chiefs 31, Bills 29

Ellen Mathis (4-1)
The Chiefs are coming off a close game on a semi-short week against a red-hot Bills team seeking revenge for a playoff loss that I’m sure still hurts today. Given that, I think we may see a repeat of last year’s regular season matchup – a matchup that included a giant lightning delay as well as a Chiefs loss. I think the Chiefs will certainly put up a fight, but I ultimately see this one going to the Bills.
Bills 42, Chiefs 36

Jacob Milham (4-1)
I am still lowering my blood pressure from the Raiders game. Now, the Chiefs expect me to survive a rematch of the most exciting postseason game ever? Be still my beating heart. This is a key game for both the Bills and the Chiefs. McDuffie’s possible return will be this week’s wildcard, as Buffalo fields one of the league’s deepest receiving corps. It is going to be an absolute brawl for AFC’s top spot this weekend. I have to go with the Chiefs getting the win.
Chiefs 27, Bills 26

Greg Morse (4-1)
Patrick Mahomes is an underdog at home for the first time ever? Let’s just sit on that for a minute. It’s going to be a tough game for KC, but at least it’s at home. When these two teams played almost exactly a year ago, Buffalo destroyed the Chiefs. But KC got its revenge in the playoffs. Still, this Bills team may be even better than they were and this game will almost assuredly decide who gets the #1 seed. If you’re not taking the over in the game, do you even watch football?
Chiefs 42, Bills 38

KC Proctor (4-1)
Take everything we’ve seen so far this season out of your mind. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen bring a level of competition to the field that can’t be measured with trends. The Bills’ defense has been great against lousy offenses, and the Chiefs will score at the same clip they have been. Chalk this up as the next wild chapter in the book of this growing rivalry.
Chiefs 36, Bills 33

Charles Robinson (4-1)
This is the game of the year—or at least the regular season thus far. In 2022 it’s the Chiefs, the Bills, and then the rest of the league. The Bills’ offense looked immaculate in Pittsburgh last week while the Chiefs’ defense limps into this Week 6 matchup. If the Chiefs can get out and punch Buffalo’s defense in the mouth early, they have a shot. If Buffalo gets an early lead I expect them to move to 5-1. For the sake of picking something different this week, I’ll take Buffalo in the regular season matchup with the Chiefs taking it to them again in the playoffs.
Bills 33, Chiefs 24

Grant Tuttle (4-1)
The Chiefs will need to be ready for this one. Everyone that has followed these two teams for the last couple of years knows that this is becoming the new Manning vs. Brady matchup in the AFC. While the Chiefs own them in the playoffs to this point, the Bills have shown themselves to be extremely capable in the regular season. Look for this one to come down to the wire with the Bills getting perceived revenge before they are inevitably knocked out of the playoffs by the Chiefs later in the season.
Bills 31 Chiefs 28

Patrick Allen (3-2)
Who are these Chiefs? Are they the team that looked dominant against the Cardinals and Bucs or the team that went flat vs. the inferior Colts and for a half, against the Raiders? I think by the end of the season, the Chiefs will have an identity and will be playing more consistent football but right now, the team is hot and cold and that is bad news with a formidable Bills team coming to town looking for revenge. The Bills’ offense may be too much for the young Chiefs’ secondary to handle. If these teams meet again in the playoffs, things might be different but this week, I like the Bills.
Bills 33, Chiefs 27

Matt Conner (3-2)
The Chiefs are going to lose a second game at some point and the Bills are the best opponent on the entire schedule. I don’t like having Willie Gay, Rashad Fenton, and maybe Trent McDuffie potentially sitting this one out, a game with so little room for margin.
Bills 27, Chiefs 24

Lyle Graversen (3-2)
I’d love to pick the Chiefs here. But the Chiefs’ defense looked vulnerable on Monday night against the Raiders, and now they’re playing the best offense they’ll see all season. The Chiefs’ offensive tackles are also struggling a little and the Bills’ defense is really good, too. The Chiefs will always have a shot with Patrick Mahomes, but I’m taking the Bills in a close one here. Hopefully, the Chiefs prove me wrong just like they did when I picked Tampa Bay a few weeks ago.
Bills 37 Chiefs 34

Scott Loring (3-2)
The Bills hold a lot of advantages on paper. You can talk about all the numbers and rankings you want, but the biggest advantage in this game is Andy Reid over Sean McDermott. The latter and his defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier enter this game timidly because they know they blew it at the end of the Divisional Round game. The Bills will play vanilla – zone, quarters, deep safeties all game long. The Chiefs will take advantage of their short passing game and this will be a lower-scoring game than many are projecting. I will be on the edge of my seat awaiting one clean shot from Nick Bolton delivered to Josh Allen, but when this one is over, the most talked about Chiefs player will be rookie cornerback Joshua Williams.
Chiefs 27, Bills 25

Lucas Strozinsky (3-2)
I picked against the Chiefs two weeks ago and proceeded to regret it. I’m going to do it again. I predicted a Buffalo victory in this game prior to the start of the season and I’m going to stick with it. The offensive line for Kansas City (primarily the tackles) has been shaky in pass protection at times and they have been struggling in recent games to rush the passer without blitzing. The problem for the Chiefs is that Josh Allen is great against the blitz, as a runner, but can be beaten if blitzed and he’s contained in the pocket. If the Chiefs can protect Mahomes and pressure Allen while also keeping him in the pocket, they will win, but I’m not sure if they can accomplish both.
Bills 31, Chiefs 24

David Thomas (3-2)
The Chiefs’ corners will need to find a way to slow down the 1-2 punch of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis without Rashad Fenton and Trent McDuffie. Davis latter torched the Chiefs’ defense in January for 4 touchdowns. That’s not happening again.
Chiefs 21, Bills 20