A Chiefs Kingdom betting guide to Sunday’s action

Don’t just sit there like a bump on a log waiting for the Chiefs to kick off on Monday night. Get in on Sunday’s action with some of the best bets we see for Week 5. 

I know, I know. Monday Night Football is the worst—when your team is playing in it, anyway. Not only do you have that empty “nothing happening for me” feeling all day on Sunday, but you have to act like you’re actually engaged in whatever your boss is having you do at work all day on Monday. Come on, dude, I’m not trying to “streamline processes” today and I don’t want to “circle back” on this later this afternoon. I’m just trying to not pace around the office like a maniac and freak out the new interns.

I digress, Monday Night Football is the ultimate test of patience for any rabid football fan. Especially for fans here in Chiefs Kingdom, who are undoubtedly built a little differently than most.

While it’s tough to wait, think about the positives. First, you don’t really have to worry about your wardrobe for 2 days with a Red Friday and a Red Monday. Just so you know, wearing the same shirt both days is not just acceptable, it’s encouraged. If you’re a college football fan, you can focus your weekend stress solely on whichever team you choose to root for.

The best part? You can take the money you won last week by placing a prop bet on Patrick Mahomes completing a touchdown pass in more ridiculous fashion than ever before and put in on this week’s Sunday slate to make things more interesting!

I’m going to start with a couple of ATS (against the spread) plays, and then lead you to the light when it comes to over/under bets, while giving you a couple of those picks as well.

49ers (-6.5) at Panthers – Sunday 3:05 CST, Fox

There are obvious reasons why you would pick this, there are deep analytical reasons why you should pick this, and there are common misconceptions about geography that might lead you to not pick this. Let me tell you why 49ers -6.5 is one of the best plays of the weekend.

Baker Mayfield and the Panthers’ offense have been dreadful this year. Some of you may know how I feel about PFF, but one thing they do break down pretty well is “perfectly covered plays” – meaning plays where the defense does everything they can to stop or limit the offense. So to lead the league in these types of plays as an offense is a very bad thing. Guess who leads the league here? Yep, Mayfield and the Panthers. It’s a true Ben McAdoo special.

The 49ers’ defense won’t help the Panthers out much when it comes to turning that tide on Sunday. The 49ers are second in the NFL in rushing, passing, and total yards allowed per game, and are first in points allowed per game. They’re the second-best team at getting to the QB with 15 sacks on the year, and Carolina conversely has given up the 9th most sacks as an offense.

Don’t believe the old wive’s tale that west coast teams going east don’t perform well, either. While ATS win percentages do dip from 68.8% to 43.6% when you take west coast teams east, that number is largely skewed by noon kickoffs. The 49ers are also 14-7 in games played in Eastern Standard Time in the last 3 seasons.

Steelers (+14) at Bills – Sunday 12:00 CST, CBS

The Pittsburgh Steelers were founded by Arthur Rooney in 1933. That’s 89 years of football tradition. This is a team that has had 3 head coaches since 1969. One of the pillars of stability and accomplishment in the NFL from a franchise perspective, in 89 years the Steelers have never been a two-touchdown underdog in an NFL game, until now. The 14-point spread in Sunday’s matchup between the Bills and Steelers marks not only the first time the Steelers find themselves in 2 TD dog territory, but it makes them the last NFL franchise to gain that distinction.

But something funny is happening in 2022. Before every player who made a play in a football game declared themselves “HIM”, players started to give each other respect by saying another guy “had that dog in him”. I’ll spare you the photoshop of a dachshund in someone’s ribcage, but I won’t spare you from omitting the declaration that 2022 is most certainly the Year of the Dog. In fact, it’s also the year of the road dog. Underdogs so far in 2022 are winning at a 59% clip (36-25-3) overall, and underdogs on the road are 20-15-1 (57.1%).

Pittsburgh’s offense has been atrocious, specifically their play-calling. Their defense is not the same without TJ Watt. But this is a proud franchise, and Buffalo has looked a little shaky out of the gates the past couple of weeks. Maybe we get some Kenny Pickett/George Pickens magic going on Sunday to keep the game close? I don’t know, this is more of a gut bet on my part, but I like the Steelers +14.

A lesson in Over/Under trends in 2022

Listen, I know a lot of you abide by the golden rule that life’s too short to bet the under. I get it, it’s not fun betting on something and then having to root for it to look like a Big 10 matchup at 11 AM on a Saturday. That sucks, everyone wants to see points. But I’ve got a surprise for you: if you’re looking to play the trends, you should be taking the unders.

It’s no secret to anyone that, generally speaking, offenses get out of the gates slower in the NFL than defenses do. It’s a symptom of the overarching principles of each side of the ball. Defensive concepts can be complex, but generally speaking, defensive football is assignment and alignment based. Offensive football is mentally a chess match and physically a decathlon. You have to be good at everything, and you have to know everything.

So to see that in the first 4 weeks of the NFL season that unders have been hitting at a pretty regular clip should not be alarming. So far the numbers have shaken out like this:

Regulation Games – Unders are 35-24, winning at a 59.3% clip

Overtime Games – Unders are 3-1, winning at a 75% clip

Yes, the over will make a comeback as offenses, both new and seasoned, continue to gel. The over will have its time in the sun. But for right now, you need to keep riding at least some of these under waves while the money is still easy. Here are a couple of picks in that direction that I like for Sunday.

Falcons at Buccaneers – Sunday 12:00 CST, Fox –  Under 48

This seems like a baited line from Vegas, but I have no clue how you expect these two offenses to get to 48 points, especially with Tampa’s defense being the league’s best outside of Week 4.

The Bucs’ totals have gone under in every game this season with the exception of last Sunday vs the Chiefs. If you look at all 3 of Tom Brady’s touchdown passes from last week, they all came when the Buccaneers were down by at least 3 scores. Don’t expect Atlanta to jump on Tampa like that and ignite the need for the passing attack you saw a week ago.

Arthur Smith has been surprisingly efficient in calling his offense this season in Atlanta, but the Falcons are far from a juggernaut. Many are saying Kyle Pitts is a glorified left tackle at this point, but his low utilization has been more based on the Falcons’ opponents than his own skill or the Falcons’ scheme, although they are certainly limited in the diversity of their aerial attack with Marcus Mariota under center.

Lions at Patriots – Sunday 12:00 CST, FOX – Under 45.5

This is extremely contrarian and goes against everything we’ve seen from Lions games so far in 2022, but walk with me for a minute.

This line opened at 44 and has come up just 1.5 points in 4 days. The book’s lack of willingness to raise this total further is telling me that they are firm on this number and confident in the house winning, and folks still hammering the over with minimal line movement proves that point. As it stands, 67% of bets are on the over and just 33% on the under.

Typically when you see small line movements and big bet discrepancies, Vegas wins. If given the opportunity to ride with frat boy logic and bet the over, or see the trend that the sharps are taking and take the under, I would suggest you do the latter.

There you have it, 4 bets to get your weekend off on the right foot. Hopefully. I have to throw this disclaimer out there: I am retired from gambling for a reason. Listening to my picks is probably about as useful as taking your kid to a Tim Tebow quarterback camp. All I’ve done here is do the research for you, it’s your job to make the decision if the juice is worth the squeeze.

Note: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.