Let’s look at the best prop bets for the Kansas City Chiefs and Indianapolis Colts as Kansas City hits the road in Week 3
Arrowhead Addict’s best bets fell to .500 on the season after the Kansas City Chiefs offense struggled to get going in Week 2. Thursday Night Football against the Chargers felt like a bit of a wake-up call after the cakewalk that was Week 1 against the Cardinals, and I expect that experience to energize the offense for its Week 3 bout against the Indianapolis Colts.
FanDuel listed the Chiefs as -6.5 point favorites to open the week and set the points total at 49.5. Given what we’ve learned thus far about the Chiefs, and the difficulties that we’ve seen the Colts face through their first two games, there are a number of sharp bets to lay down for Sunday. Here are the three best prop bets for Chiefs vs Colts in Week 3 (all odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook).
1. Alternate points under 48.5 (+100)
The Jacksonville Jaguars posted 24 points when they shut out the Colts in Week 2, and it is abundantly clear that Indianapolis is struggling to find its identity as a team. The Carson Wentz experiment of 2021 was a disaster, and the trajectory of the Matt Ryan experiment is quickly fading into darkness. With that said, even in the wake of the Willie Gay suspension, I believe that the Chiefs’ defense will have a dominant performance against a so far frustrated and undefined Colts offense.
The Chiefs are currently scoring at a clip of 35.5 points per game, but I expect that number to normalize a bit and regress into the high-20s to just about 30 range. With the Colts only scoring 20 points over the course of the first two weeks of the season, getting positive odds by dropping Vegas’ total by just one point seems like a gift. I’m calling for a 30-17 Chiefs victory, 47 total points and a win on prop No. 1.
2. Kansas City Chiefs to score in every quarter (+110)
Other than a scoreless third quarter against the New York Giants on November 1st of last year, the Chiefs have scored in every quarter that they have played against opponents with losing records since they laid an egg in the third quarter against the Chicago Bears on December 22nd, 2019.
The Colts defense was among the best in all of football last year, but has yet to show a glimmer of that this season. In two games Indianapolis has allowed opponents to score in five of eight total quarters. Those opponents have combined to score 75 total points through two weeks, and the Chiefs have already scored 71 points themselves. I expect the Patrick Mahomes MVP train to hit the tracks at full speed in Indianapolis.
3. Total first-quarter points over 9.5 (-135)
If I’m right about the Chiefs offense having a big bounce back week, they will come out of the gate swinging. I like two score for the Chiefs alone in the first quarter, making this over hit with ease.