Best and worst case scenarios for every team in AFC West

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Best Case Scenario

The Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback. They still have Andy Reid as head coach. They still have an elite offensive line. A lot of fans and media members have been dancing on the Chiefs’ grave this spring and summer and I don’t quite understand why. They have the best passer in the sport, they have the best tight end in the NFL, an elite offensive line, a complete wide receiver core, and a young defense loaded with talent. Oh, and they’ve also won the AFC West six seasons in a row.

I’m not going to say much regarding Mahomes, but Skyy Moore and JuJu Smith-Schuster are looking very good and Travis Kelce is still Travis Kelce. In their ideal scenario, the offense has its best season since 2018, which will be hard to replicate, but their rebuilt receiver core and potential willingness to stick with the run could make them more difficult to defend than in recent years. Trading away Tyreek Hill hurts but it’s not a backbreaker for Kansas City.

On defense, the Chiefs are projected by fans to have one of the worst units in the NFL. I don’t think that’s unfair but I also don’t think that’s likely as well. They’re loaded with young talent on defense with young stud linebackers Nick Bolton and Willie Gay. They also have young corners Rashad Fenton, L’Jarius Sneed, Trent McDuffie, and Joshua Williams to go along with rookie Bryan Cook, which could turn into one of the best young secondaries in the entire league. They drafted George Karlaftis a lot later than they should have in this past draft, they recently added Carlos Dunlap on the edge, and Chris Jones is still one of the premier interior pass rushers in the NFL, right behind Aaron Donald. It would not shock me in the least bit if the Chiefs’ defense surprised people this season and is a great unit by season’s end.

In the Chiefs’ best-case scenario, not only do most of their new additions have to work out but they also have to both mesh well together and hit the ground running as soon as Week 1 comes around.

Overall, the Chiefs are still the Chiefs and will make the playoffs, it’s just a matter of which seed. They have as much young talent as they’ve ever had in the Patrick Mahomes era and it wouldn’t be wise to waste it.

Best Case Scenario: 14-3, AFC West Champions, Super Bowl champions

Worst Case Scenario

The Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes, they still have Andy Reid, Travis Kelce is still a member of the team and they still have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. That’s enough to win the AFC West… most years. Losing one of the most feared superweapons that the NFL has seen this century will cause some growing pains in their rebuilt wide receiver room.

Their defense, while loaded with talent, is very young and will likely be feasted upon early in the season and they will have to rely on their new-look offense to carry the load, which is not inherently a bad thing because of Mahomes but could cost them due to a receiver group that needs to build chemistry with the future Hall of Fame quarterback.

There is also a scenario in which the new receivers do not work well with Mahomes and their offensive line takes a surprising step back. Also in their nightmare scenario, all of their moves to aid the pass rush, such as retaining Frank Clark, signing Carlos Dunlap, and drafting George Karlaftis all don’t work out and the Chiefs again have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. The young corners, like Trent McDuffie and Joshua Williams, may prove to have needed a redshirt year and play like the rookies they are. Young linebackers Nick Bolton and Willie Gay could also take a step back, which would hurt the middle of their defense really bad.

In conclusion, this is the most vulnerable that the Chiefs have been, arguably since 2017. This could finally be the year that a team other than the Kansas City Chiefs wins the AFC West. Even in a year last season where Patrick Mahomes seemingly forgot how to play quarterback for a month, the Chiefs still managed to finish 12-5 and were a solid second half in Week 17 against the Bengals from being the number one seed in the AFC. Even if the Chiefs have a “down year”, they should still contend for the AFC West crown.

Worst Case Scenario: 10-7, Third place in the AFC West, Lose in the Wild Card Round

Projection

12-5, First place in the AFC West, Second seed in the AFC, Lose in the AFC Championship Game