Orlando Brown Jr. declining offer is net positive for K.C. Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs and left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. were unable to agree upon terms to an extension ahead of the Friday deadline. Brown, if he chooses to play this season, will do so under the franchise tag, good for $16.7 million dollars this year.

The Chiefs apparently made a solid push to ink Brown for the long-term, offering the Pro Bowler a six-year deal worth $139 million dollars, $95 million of which was due to be paid over the first five years of the contract. The fluff on the back end, a sixth year with a base salary of $40 million written in, was never intended to be paid out. Its sole purpose was to appease Brown’s desire to be paid among the league’s best left tackles on an annual basis.

Although in reality, with only five of six years intended to be paid, Brown’s new deal would have been worth roughly $19 million in average annual value (top 5 among left tackles). On paper, it would have read as $23 million AAV (top 2 among LTs). Since the Chiefs acquired Brown from the Baltimore Ravens last offseason, it seems his primary interests lie in becoming financially recognized as an elite left tackle, and Brett Veach was willing to give him that clout.

There is plenty to be said about how this will affect both parties involved, so let’s pinpoint each of the ramifications of this failed negotiation.

Overall, the Chiefs came out on top in this deal. Brett Veach and Clark Hunt made it clear to the world that they are willing to pay top dollar for upper echelon talent, and they managed to do so while putting their foot down and refusing to overpay for a player who has incessantly oversold himself.

The only way that the team could possibly get hurt while paying under the premium for a three-time Pro Bowl talent, is if Brown were to pull a 2018 Le’Veon Bell and opt out of playing this season. Should Brown stick to his guns in defense of his self-proclaimed worth, he has every right to opt-out of the season and put the Chiefs in a serious pickle.

In that scenario, the Chiefs would be left with options to either slide Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, offer Lucas Niang the opportunity of a lifetime and a shot at filling the role, entrust Andrew Wylie to take on a full-time starting role, or put all of their eggs into the Darian Kinnard basket and promote the fifth-round pick directly to left tackle. Good news for the Chiefs, however, is that Brown is highly unlikely to opt out. We’ll get to more on that shortly.

For now, more positives on the team side. Apart from making clear their intent to expand the championship window and their willingness to pay for it, the Chiefs will still feature a perennial Pro Bowler at left tackle and will retain control of his position, potentially, through 2024. The $16.7 million that Brown will make this year is the baseline of that control.

The Chiefs would be able to franchise tag their left tackle again in 2023, for 120% of his 2022 tag. That total would be just a tick above $20 million, still below Brown’s proclaimed desires, and still a bargain for a top-tier tackle. That same option, while available again the following year, would become far less advantageous in 2024. A player under the franchise tag for a third consecutive season receives the greatest value of the following salary amounts:

• 144% of his previous year’s tag ($28.85M)
• 120% of the average of the top five salaries at his position
• The average of the top five salaries for the highest paid position in the league (QB)

In essence, the Chiefs retain total financial leverage over Brown through 2023, all while maintaining the ability to negotiate a long-term deal with him—assuming they are interested in doing so and the relationship remains positive.

Finally, touching on the aforementioned point, the Chiefs were winners in this deal because their financial position and capability were made visible to the public. The team was willing to make Orlando Brown Jr. a top-five paid left tackle in the league with only the hope that he will keep up his current efficiency. If Brown were to disappear from the Chiefs’ depth chart, the O-line would be significantly diminished, but it would still not be the lowest point on the roster.

The take-home point here is that talented players across the league who are heading into contract years in 2023, and are interested in winning a championship, now know that they can be adequately appreciated—financially—in Kansas City. The money saved by not paying Brown today, and the intangible meaning of the intent behind the Chiefs’ offer to him could parlay into a superstar at a different position landing in K.C. next offseason.