2022 NFL Draft: Weighing various trade scenarios for KC Chiefs

Moving up 10-15 spots

One of the most interesting teams in the entire draft this year is the Houston Texans. They are currently slated to make the number 3 and number 13 overall selections and have the most incomplete roster in all of football. Depending on who they view as the best player available at number 3, they could totally shake up the top-10, and head into number 13 satisfied—looking to bring in greater capital. Enter the Chiefs:

Chiefs receive: No. 13 (336) + No. 37 (162) + No. 183 (7) + No. 205 (4) + No. 207 (4) = 513 points
Texans receive: No. 29 (203) + No. 30 (196) + No. 50 (115) = 514 points

This is the last offer including both first-round picks and commands the greatest quantity return. Moving up to 13 doesn’t demand both 29 and 30 per the Rich Hill Model, but the Chiefs are able to improve their second-round stock immensely by doing so. Leveraging both back-end first-rounders is appealing to the Texans in that they would get three first-round selections, and they need them more than any other franchise.

The Chiefs getting up to 13, having a chance at their favorite receiver or a top 4 or 5 edge rusher, and then turning around with an early second-round selection to get whichever they pass on at 13, is also a win for Kansas City. The early part of the second round, particularly in this year’s draft, features a great deal of talent of which the Chiefs are in need. The second tiers of receivers, edge rushers, and defensive backs are deep, and improving the second-round slots could potentially be even more valuable than taking two first-round picks.

Chiefs receive: No. 20 (269) + No. 138 (17) = 286 points
Steelers receive: No. 29 (203) + No. 62 (84) = 287 points

The Pittsburgh Steelers are set to make their first pick at number 20, and should they elect to stay there rather than trade up for a QB—as they are another team in need—they would be a perfect candidate for a trade back with the Chiefs. If the Steelers see that their quarterback of the future is sliding to them, trading back to 29 and getting another high-value pick would be a perfect scenario for them. No team between 20 and 29 is in the market for a QB, and they could make this trade safely, while still securing their guy:

This works out great for the Chiefs in the instance that their favorite wide receiver is still available at 20. Moving up nine spots to get that guy at the cost of two top-100 picks may seem overzealous, but there are a number of teams that could be eyeing the same talent between 20 and 29. The Packers have two picks in that span, run an incredibly similar scheme to Kansas City, and their needs are right in line with the Chiefs this offseason. The Cardinals are slim at wide receiver, the Cowboys traded away Amari Cooper last month, and the Titans are looking for a legit WR2 behind AJ Brown. If Brett Veach’s WR1 survives to number 20, this is an excellent move to secure his guy.