2022 NFL Draft: Weighing various trade scenarios for KC Chiefs

Entering the top 10

As the draft cycle has spun, the Chiefs’ top priority has been a steady point of debate, but whether it is a defensive back, a wide receiver, or an edge rusher who is the apple of Veach’s eye, there are two primary landing spots for the Chiefs to go up and get their guy early.

The ultimate factor for two teams in the top 10 that makes them candidates for a trade back is the lack of depth in this year’s quarterback class. The Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons currently feature Sam Darnold and Marcus Mariota under center, and both are potential landings for one of the top three or five ranked QBs. However, there aren’t many organizations currently in the market for a new signal-caller, and with none of the quarterbacks on the big board lauded as generational talents—or even day one impact players—the Panthers and Falcons brass might be feeling more confident in finding their guy of the future later on and adding some capital to help round out their rosters in other ways.

If the Chiefs were to get up to number 6 overall via a trade with the Panthers, it would cost a pretty penny. Per the Rich Hill Model, the 6th overall selection is worth 464 points. In juggling the numbers around, there was only one way that the Chiefs picking at 6 made any sense:

Chiefs receive: No. 6 (446) + No. 137 (18) = 464 points
Panthers receive: No. 29 (203) + No. 30 (196) + No. 94 (41) + No. 121 (25) = 465 points

This works out well for both parties as long as there is a top two or three ranked player on Veach’s big board that he wants to go get. This could be a Kayvon Thibodeaux that slides a bit, one of the top two DBs in Ahmad Gardner or Derek Stingley, or the top-rated wide receiver for the Chiefs, whomever that may be. For the Panthers’ sake, this is a great move. If they are to stand pat with number 6, they will not be selected again until pick 137. The Chiefs would need to give up a haul to enter the top ten, but in this instance still retain both of their second-rounders, one of their third-rounders, and through a swap, retain two fourth-rounders.

Chiefs receive: No. 8 (406) + No. 151 (12) = 418 points
Falcons receive: No. 29 (203) + No. 30 (196) + No. 135 (18) = 417 points

The Falcons’ boat is pretty similar to the Panthers, but they may be a less likely suitor for a trade back from number 8 overall; they trotted out one of the worst defenses in all of football last season. They are in the market for a quarterback and may be able to find him in the second round while landing a potential top 5 defensive prospect depending on how offensive pieces fall in the top 7. The difference between pick number 6 and number 8, however, is substantial. Kansas City could get into the top 10 for far cheaper if their target prospect makes it past the first 7 selections and if the Falcons are interested in attaining more capital. Here is how the Chiefs may be able to negotiate with them:

There has been plenty of disaffection towards the idea of trading both first-round picks, but if it allows the Chiefs into the top-10 and brings a superstar to Kansas City, it’s unlikely that there would be many naysayers in the aftermath. In this offer, the Chiefs give up both late first-round picks for a top-10 choice, and trade the latter of their two fourth-rounders for an early fifth-round selection, a round in which they currently have no picks. The main draw to the Falcons here is that if they accept this offer, they become the team with 8 picks in the top 135, and that comes with great appeal to a team in the midst of a full-blown rebuild.