Why it’s a mistake to allow Tyrann Mathieu to hit free agency

The prospect of a Tyrann Mathieu extension has been in discussion for over a year now, and with his official decision to test the free agency market, it is time to take a serious look at whether letting him possibly slip away was the right or wrong decision. There have been a variety of anti-Mathieu opinions shared within the Kingdom, such as, “he’s too old”, “his tackling has declined”, “he doesn’t care anymore”, “he’s not worth top safety money”, and the list goes on and on.

After a good deal of research, I can confidently say that I disagree with each of the aforementioned thoughts. Allowing Tyrann Mathieu to enter free agency was a mistake.

This will be an objective overview of Tyrann Mathieu’s statistical performance in comparison to the top two highest-paid safeties in the league, and one other who is in the same salary bracket as himself. To offer some context of perceived value at the safety position, here is a list of the top seven highest-paid safeties in the NFL by average annual value (AAV) from the 2021 season:

1. Jamal Adams (SEA): $17.5M
2. Harrison Smith (MIN): $16M
3. Justin Simmons (DEN): $15.25M
4. Budda Baker (ARI): $14.75M
5. Eddie Jackson (CHI): $14.6M
6. Kevin Bayard (TEN):$14.1M
7. Tyrann Mathieu (KC): $14M

Mathieu has made clear his belief that he belongs at the top of that list, and in looking at the numbers, it is objectively difficult to make a case against him.

To offer a relative, side-by-side perspective, I compiled a variety of statistics that demonstrate the most direct impact on game outcomes by safeties. Each of the following numbers is from the 2019, 2020, and 2021 seasons—or, since Mathieu joined the Chiefs and began his most recent contract. The only potentially subjective statistic listed is “fumble recoveries.” It is included, not to boost Mathieu’s position in this comparison, but because the most valuable trait for a safety is to be around the football. Whether it is innate, intangible, or just pure luck, the supporting role of the strong safety becomes more valuable to a team the more frequently that player finds himself around the football.

Tyrann Mathieu ($14M AAV)
2019-2021:

• Interceptions: 13
• Touchdowns: 2
• Fumble recoveries: 4
• Solo tackles per year (average): 57 [2019 & 2021 both 60+]
• Passes defended per year (average): 9

Kevin Byard ($14.1M AAV)
2019-2021:

• Interceptions: 11
• Touchdowns: 1
• Fumble recoveries: 1
• Solo tackles per year (average): 65 [2019 & 2020 both 60+]
• Passes defended per year (average): 9

Harrison Smith ($16M AAV)
2019-2021:

• Interceptions: 9
• Touchdowns: 0
• Solo tackles per year (average): 67 [2019 & 2021 both 60+]
• Passes defended per year (average): 9

Jamal Adams ($17.5M AAV)
2019-2021:

• Interceptions: 3
• Touchdowns: 1
• Fumble recoveries: 1
• Solo tackles per year (average): 58 [61 tackles in 2019]
• Passes defended per year (average): 5

Given the comp to Jamal Adams and Harrison Smith, the current two highest-paid safeties in the league, both Byard and Mathieu have been discounts to their respective organizations. With that said, it is unequivocally not Tyrann Mathieu’s fault that the Seattle Seahawks grossly overpaid for the performance they have received from Jamal Adams. What the Seahawks did in overpaying Adams was, firstly, shoot themselves in the foot, and, secondly, reset the premium for elite-level safety play.

There really isn’t any bailout for Mathieu suitors this offseason. Based on the current market, the timing has fallen perfectly in his favor to receive top dollar at the position. His production since 2019 is head and shoulders above Adams from a strictly statistical perspective. Not to mention the leadership skills that he brings to a locker room, and the value of his championship experience which, frankly, cannot be measured in dollar signs.

It seems clear that the Honey Badger is statistically among the top-producing safeties in the league. If the Chiefs want top talent to defend the third level against one of the most — if not the most — talented offensive divisions in the NFL, letting Tyrann Mathieu walk was a mistake.