Given the overwhelming amount of news in the National Football League on Tuesday, it wouldn’t surprise us if you missed the fact that the Detroit Lions re-signed one of their own players to a smaller two-year deal before free agency. That will happen on the same day that Russell Wilson was traded and Aaron Rodgers decided where to play.
To clarify, the Lions decided they liked what they saw from a half-season’s worth of work from wide receiver Josh Reynolds enough to bring him back on a modest two-year contract before NFL free agency was set to begin. Reynolds’ deal can reach up to $12 million through 2023 and gives the young Lions’ offense some stability heading into the offseason.
While the deal flew under the radar on such a frenzied day, it’s still an important one for the ways in which it informs the market
The Lions’ ability to sign Josh Reynolds early and for such a reasonable deal should inform this year’s wide receiver market.
The Kansas City Chiefs are definitely a team in the market for a free agent wide receiver this offseason, so anything that shifts or informs the market should be of interest to them, especially one involving Reynolds.
First, the Chiefs were once interested in Reynolds enough to chase him in free agency a year ago, so it’s entirely possible that the team was preparing the idea of another offer to him in free agency—even if he was farther down the list of desired targets—which means his signing limits the choices in front of Brett Veach and company.
That much is bad news for the Chiefs, but Reynolds’ signing with the Lions comes with good news for the Chiefs. No one knows exactly how this free agent market is going to shake out for a couple of reasons. First, the league has bumped up the salary cap threshold considerably after a down year in which every team took their lumps (players, really) after suffering financial losses during a global pandemic.
Second, the market in a given year does not settle at a given position until it’s often too late—when every team shows up to the free agency party with a set amount. While it’s possible to predict most spending limits, the truth is that there are moments when a position breaks through or a team overwhelms for a particular player or position—thus surprising everyone else at the gathering.
Reynolds’ willingness to forgo free agency is a big indicator that spending at the wide receiver position might be very modest. With a $6M average over two years, Reynolds clearly decided to dance with the one who brung him, as they say. In short, he took the guaranteed money on the front end rather than to risk things on the open market. Those who represent him also clearly advised him that there were issues ahead in free agency—not that things were guaranteed to be bad but that it was too foggy to tell.
Think about this: for a receiver like Reynolds and others below the top-tier, teams have an abundance of WR options this offseason between the sheer number of free agents, potential trade targets (Adam Thielen, Tyler Lockett, et al), and yet another loaded draft class. Given that two draft classes in a row have yielded instant production for numerous teams, more teams might be leaning toward waiting until after the draft to sign a veteran wideout like Reynolds.
Think of other such receivers coming off of an injury, like Allen Robinson, D.J. Chark, or JuJu Smith-Schuster, or players in the same vein as Reynolds, such as Sammy Watkins, Christian Kirk, or Will Fuller. There are a dozen more than just these names and suddenly you realize just how loaded the market is.
Altogether, it looks as if the Chiefs have one less name on their list, but that name might have just telegraphed a positive trend going forward into mid-March: that the Chiefs and other teams in need of WRs are going to have an easier time setting their terms on the open market.