How seriously should we take the Las Vegas Raiders in AFC West?

After a maddening close loss to the Baltimore Ravens, the K.C. Chiefs are currently sitting in third place in the AFC West.

This is the first time in 70 weeks that the Chiefs have not held a share of the division title according to Kurtis Seaboldt, which is good for second longest in NFL history.

Thankfully it’s only Week 2 and there are still 15 games to be played. But, it begs the question, are the other two teams currently above the Chiefs in the standings, the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos, legit? Specifically the Raiders, who are undefeated and in first place.

It’s too early in the season to know exactly how the Raiders two wins will stack up in the long-term, but as it stands, their Week 1 opponent, the Ravens, seems to have given them a greater run for their money. This is important considering that those same Ravens narrowly edged the Chiefs this past Sunday too. In both games, the Ravens both should have won and should have lost, but the outcomes were reversed—because of a fumble.

In that Week 1 contest, the Raiders played solidly, but still almost found the most Raider way to lose the game when Derek Carr threw and interception at the goal line in OT. Their other opponent, the Pittsburgh Steelers, also put up a strong fight this past Sunday and this win probably means more than the Ravens game did – because the Steelers managed to beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 1.

Still tracking? All this means that through two weeks of play the Raiders have defeated two strong opponents through a combo of skill and luck. It is true that Derek Carr currently leads in the NFL in passing yards and he is off to one of his best seasons so far. And despite their former first round pick being a healthy scratch last week, the Raiders defense has also been solid. It also means they own the tiebreaker over the Ravens, which could hurt the Chiefs at the end of the season.

This all sounds pretty familiar though doesn’t it? The Raiders started out 6-3 last season, including a 2-0 start, only to finish the season 8-8. In 2019 they started 6-4, only the finish 7-9. The past few years the Raiders have gotten off to a hot start, but then have been unable to sustain it down the road. Could they be different this year? Perhaps, but given their close Week 1 OT win, I have my doubts.

Finally, this Raiders team feels eerily reminiscent of the 2013 Chiefs. That was Andy Reid’s first year and the Chiefs went from 2-14 to opening the season on a 9-0 run under their new head coach. While the win streak was impressive, the reality was that the Chiefs were beating up on some pretty bad teams that year, and the real test came after the bye week when they faced the Denver Broncos for the first time, who at the time were lead by Peyton Manning.

The Chiefs got shredded that game, brought back down to earth, and ended up finishing the season 11-5 and added a heartbreaking playoff loss.

It’s hard to say that the Ravens and Steelers are “scrub” teams. In fact one of them just (barely) beat the Chiefs, but I think the parallels are still there. The Raiders might be better than in past years, and they might open the season on a solid run (especially with Week 3 being against the Tua-less Miami Dolphins), but I think the real test will come in Week 10 when they finally play the Chiefs for the first time.

Similar to the Alex Smith-led 2013 Chiefs playing the Peyton Manning-led 2013 Broncos, I think we’ll see a similarly outmatched Derek  Carr-led Raiders square off against a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs. And barring an injury, or the Chiefs defense just unable to get themselves together, I think last year’s Week 5 Super Bowl win for the Raiders will be a one time occurrence as the Chiefs put Las Vegas back in their place.