KC Chiefs: Managing expectations for the rebuilt offensive line

This offseason, the K.C. Chiefs revamped their offensive line, with impressive aggression. In fact, according to the first unofficial depth chart, the Chiefs may have new starters at every single offensive line position: left tackle Orlando Brown Jr, left guard Joe Thuney, center Creed Humphrey, right guard Trey Smith and right tackle Lucas Niang.

While this list of first-stringers is subject to change, it’s a strong indication that the Chiefs offensive line will be largely, if not entirely, new.

While this overhaul is exciting, we should address the expectations for this OL unit. After all, most if not all of last year’s starters will be replaced, so it’d be helpful to get a gauge at the type of performance this unit can provide. But in order to address expectations, it’s necessary to make a distinction, because we can compare how we think this line compares to both the one we saw in the Super Bowl and in the 2020 regular season. As any Chiefs fan knows, there’s a sizable difference between the two, and it’s important to clarify which comparison we make.

Fans will need to manage expectations for KC Chiefs revamped offensive line.

First, let’s compare this year’s line with the group from the Super Bowl. Comparing these two, I think it’s absolutely reasonable to expect this year’s unit to be far better. The offensive line in the Super Bowl was missing both Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, the unit’s two best players by a good margin. In their absence, the Chiefs tried to make do with the remaining talent, shuffling some players around, but the result was extremely disappointing.

The addition of proven high-quality starters like Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown Jr. alone should make this year’s unit better than the one we saw in the Super Bowl. Even in the event that the rest of the line struggles, it’s going to be extremely hard to match the level we saw in the Super Bowl, especially given some proven additions to the left side of the line. So I think it’s very reasonable to expect this Chiefs o-line to be substantially better than that unit from the Super Bowl.

The conversation gets a little more complicated when we consider the line from the 2020 regular season. By no means was that unit great, but they had solid play from Eric Fisher (pre-injury) and Mitchell Schwartz played pretty well when available at right tackle. I thought Kelechi Osemele shined when he was on the field, too. Again, all three of these men were absent for the Super Bowl. The rest of the line was filled in with serviceable players like Andrew Wylie and Austin Reiter. Again, not an ironclad line, but eons better than the Fisher, Schwartz-less group we saw in the Super Bowl.

The question, then, is can we reasonably expect the predicted 2021 offensive line to be better than the 2020 regular season o-line? Let’s break it down player-by-player. Orlando Brown Jr. replaces Eric Fisher, and I think it’s fair to expect Brown to be as good, but probably a bit better than, Fisher—at least in year one. While Fisher had a nice season last year, Brown is a young, proven star with plenty of time to grow and maximize his potential.

Joe Thuney replaces Nick Allegretti/Kelechi Osemele. Again, I think it’s fair to assume that Thuney will serve as an upgrade at LG. Osemele looked solid before getting injured, but Thuney is a former second team All-Pro still in his prime and is in a different class of player.

While I think we can safely assume that Brown and Thuney will provide upgrades at both of their positions, it’s hard to make the case for the rest of the line. To be clear, though, I am not “down” on the likes of Trey Smith, Creed Humphrey or Lucas Niang. It’s more about what our reasonable expectations should be for three players who have never played an NFL snap.

Consider this analogy: let’s say that Chargers are coming to town in Week 1 (they aren’t) and they have three rookies playing their first game on the o-line. How good would you feel about Chris Jones and Frank Clark’s chances at getting to Justin Herbert? Pretty good, right? In fact, in the lead up to such a game, someone like me might point out that the Chargers o-line, with three unproven starters, might be a nice matchup to exploit. You wouldn’t approach that Chargers game thinking, “Man, these young guys on their line, who have never played in the NFL, have the potential to be really good. It’s gonna be tough to get past them.”

Now, to be fair, the kids might be good, but the idea is that your assumption that the rookies will struggle is justified simply because rookies/inexperienced players often do. The point is that our expectations should conform to different likelihoods, and the likelihood of some growing pains within this offensive front feels far greater than having limited struggles.

While the Chiefs brought in two proven starters, it might take some time for the rest of the line, and by extension, the line as a unit to jell. This isn’t the result of some failure; rather, it’s just the process of rebuilding at work. The fact that the Chiefs have some unproven players on the line is the natural result of their commitment to rebuild their line. They want to find their next homegrown stalwart(s), and that requires putting unproven assets in big roles early.

But we should be equally mindful of the fact that the results of this rebuild might not jump off the page immediately. While we can safely assume we won’t have to see a repeat of that Super Bowl, we should be measured in our expectations for this offensive line.

The thing is, when you have Mahomes at QB and Reid drawing up plays, you don’t need an ironclad line to win. You just need to ensure that your line is better than the one we saw protect Mahomes in the Super Bowl, and I think the Chiefs have clearly done that. The next step will be appreciating the development of the likes of Trey Smith and Creed Humphrey, even if it takes some time.