Where Tyreek Hill stands among KC Chiefs and NFL all-time greats
There was some discussion a couple weeks back of where Tyreek Hill stood compared to another one of the NFL’s great receivers. Many people had strong takes on either side. This conversation had me thinking, where could Tyreek Hill conceivably land on the list of Kansas City Chiefs and all time greats when his career was over?
Hill is one of the best receivers the franchise has ever seen. His rare blend of speed, quickness, and all around explosion allow him to leave opposing defenders in the dust to the tune of three 1,000 yard seasons in five years. The only reason he missed the 1,000 yard mark in 2019 was due to injury.
For the five seasons Hill has been in the NFL he’s averaged 15 games per season, 74 catches for 1,079 yards and nine touchdowns. On the franchise’s all time list for receiving he is ninth all time in catches, ninth all time in receiving yards, and sixth all time in receiving touchdowns.
Of the eight players in front of him for two of those three stats, all played a considerable number of seasons longer than Hill:
- Tony Gonzalez, 12 seasons
- Travis Kelce, eight seasons
- Otis Taylor, 11 seasons
- Dwayne Bowe, eight seasons
- Henry Marshall, 12 seasons
- Carlos Carson, 10 seasons
- Stephone Paige, nine seasons
- Chris Burford, eight seasons
Let’s assume Hill has the average length of career, 10 seasons, of the above group. Let’s also assume that Hill is able to maintain 90 percent of his current average productivity during that time. After 10 seasons of this production Hill would finish second in receptions with 699, second in receiving yards with 10,243, and first in touchdowns with 89.
If we assume Hill is able to play one extra season at the same above assumptions to match Otis Taylor’s career length, the top true wide receiver on our list, unsurprisingly Hill does even better. With these assumptions Hill would finish second in receptions, first in yards and first in touchdowns.
Obviously he has to contend with the likes of Travis Kelce, who also happens to be on pace to finish near the top. Still, this shows the privilege Chiefs fans have to witness such great play at the wide receiver position. If he stays healthy, it will be hard to argue that Hill isn’t the best receiver the Chiefs franchise has ever had.
So where does Hill stand amongst the all time greats. Let’s take a look at the five players atop the all time receiving yards board. Similarly to the above group, each of these players played considerably longer than Hill by the end of their careers:
- Jerry Rice, 20 seasons
- Larry Fitzgerald, 17 seasons
- Terrell Owens, 15 seasons
- Randy Moss, 15 seasons
- Isaac Bruce, 16 seasons
Let’s assume Hill has the average length of career, 17 seasons, of the above group. Let’s also assume that Hill is able to maintain 75 percent of his current average productivity mentioned before. After 17 seasons of this production Hill would finish 12th in receptions with 1,030, seventh in receiving yards with 15,094, and fourth in touchdowns with 132.
If we assume Hill is able to play three extra seasons at the same above assumptions to match Jerry Rice’s career length, once again Hill does even better. With these assumptions Hill would finish fifth in receptions, second in yards and third in touchdowns.
These are incredible numbers, in either scenario. Add the fact that the Chiefs are likely going to be competing for Lombardi Trophies for the next several season, and it’s easy to presume Tyreek Hill is a future Hall of Famer. Whether you can respectfully compare him to some of these players today is surely up for debate, but it might not be for much longer.