NFL experts split on Bills vs Chiefs predictions for AFC Championship

Although the Kansas City Chiefs handily defeated the Buffalo Bills in Week 6 of the NFL season, experts are more split on K.C. than at any other point this season. It is unclear whether these picks were made in nervousness because of the injury that Mahomes sustained last week. Now that he has cleared concussion protocol, the Chiefs expect to be fully loaded for the AFC Championship. Regardless, many experts still like the Bills to advance to the Super Bowl.

There are a lot of reasons to believe in the Bills this season—none stronger than the connection between Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen. Diggs is an incredible talent who has brought the best out of Allen in his young career. There is little doubt that we will see that connection early and often. If the Bills can get pressure on Mahomes and make a few stops early, they have a chance to be in the game in the end. If they can’t, it seems unlikely the Chiefs will fall to the Bills.

The Chiefs have looked deficient in run production. Until last week, they had looked incapable of moving the ball at all on the ground. On top of run struggles, they have had problems in pass protection. The Bills are certainly talented enough to exploit these weaknesses, but there is one very large problem for Buffalo: Mahomes and the passing offense.

While Mahomes has cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol, there is still uncertainty around his mobility due to a toe injury. Unfortunately for the Bills, this is likely not enough to slow the Kansas City passing offense. The Bills will need to deal with Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and likely Sammy Watkins. While Buffalo can certainly win, they will need to have an excellent game. Experts can see the game going either way.

This is what they have to say:

NFL.com:

At NFL.com there are a number of different takes. The NFL playoffs bring a slew of new storylines and wild predictions. Seemingly everyone has a hot take this time of year as well as what they hope to see. Analysts can’t help themselves from announcing their “heart picks.” At NFL.com and NFL Network you can find a lot of varying opinions, but no analyst is as objective as Gregg Rosenthal at NFL.com. Rosenthal had this to say about the Chiefs and Bills matchup:

"I’m picking Mahomes and Reid until proven otherwise, with the better quarterback and the better coach being the ultimate tiebreaker between two teams ready to win a title.”"

ESPN:

The ESPN panel is different than many websites picking the game. They disagree on the Bills and Chiefs. It is unclear whether many of these picks came from the uncertainty around Mahomes or if the 9 person panel at the network is just higher on the Bills than other websites. Three of the nine took Buffalo to move on to the Super Bowl. These columnists that chose the Bills include Mike Clay, Dan Graziano, and Kevin Seifert. The remaining six took the Chiefs to march on to consecutive Super Bowls.

CBS:

The panel at CBS feels pretty good about the Chiefs as well, since only two in their group like the Bills. John Breech and Ryan Wilson opted to pick the Bills in a “straight up” fashion. It is a jumbled mess when it comes to picking against the spread. However, it is notable that on the eight man panel, 4 of them chose the Chiefs to cover the spread.

FiveThirtyEight:

As election season has officially come to a close, FiveThirtyEight has had more of an opportunity to focus on what truly matters: SPORTS. While the people at that website have been bullish on the Chiefs throughout the year, this week they are much less certain. Currently, they give the Chiefs the edge with a 54% chance of victory. For comparison, they like the Packers to beat Tampa Bay with a 63% chance. Obviously, there is an idea among experts that Buffalo can match up and keep pace with the Chiefs in a head-to-head matchup.

NFL Pickwatch:

If you want to find a location to find all of the expert picks, there is no better place than NFL Pickwatch, which tracks hundreds of experts and who they select to win in weekly matchups. At present, the Chiefs and Packers are favored to advance to the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs are favored by the wide margin of 74% to the Bills 26%. This means that Kansas City has been picked by 74% of the experts that they track. The Packers are ahead at an 80-20 clip. It appears that the Chiefs are clearly favored but the experts are more split than they have been on their game than they have been all year.