A look at the lines the bookies have set for the game between the Chiefs and Raiders.
The Kansas City Chiefs are in a position to avenge their embarrassing Week 5 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders this Sunday. After having to sit with that loss for six weeks, the Chiefs will be hungry to push back on their divisional rivals and all but secure their spot on top of the AFC West.
Let’s take a look at the matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders and the lines that have been set for that game. We will break down the odds, and offer our advice for sports bettors to follow.
Author’s note: Bet at your own risk. All odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.
Spread: Chiefs by 8
The Chiefs and Las Vegas are both 6-3 against the spread, which is a misleading stat that makes it sound like these two teams are on the same level. For a nuanced look at that record, look no further then the Chiefs’ 11.1 point average margin of victory to the Raiders’ 1.6 point average.
See also the fact that, despite having such a large average margin of victory and an 8-1 record, Chiefs’ games are staying under the O/U line 55.6% of the time, meaning the Chiefs are holding opponents to so few points. Compare this to the Raiders, who, despite the low average margin of victory, are letting opponents drive the game into the over 77.8% of the time, meaning they are getting themselves into shootout after shootout.
The on-field statistics back up that second conclusion as well. The Raiders’ defense has allowed the ninth most yards per pass attempt, the seventh most passing yards, the fourth most rushing touchdowns, the third most points per drive, the fifth most yards per drive, and sit 11th in terms of total yards allowed. When up against the Chiefs offense, this seems like a recipe for disaster.
Sure, the Raiders grabbed a win over the Chiefs in their last meeting, but that had less to do with the matchups and more to do with a few mistakes: a drop by Keizer on a vital third down conversion, a forced pass that was intercepted, multiple blown coverages downfield. Add in a few questionable no-calls on deep tosses, and it becomes clear that this game was clearly largely decided by the Chiefs’ mistakes.
With a bye week to prepare and six weeks to live with those mistakes, the Chiefs are not making those miscues a second time. As a matter of fact, with that extra week to prepare, I fully expect this to be a near-perfect game from the defending champions, with the offense and defense absolutely controlling their divisional opponent.
I would take the Chiefs even if the spread were up around two scores, even up to -14, so I feel comfortable taking them -8 in this matchup. Although, this is a great time to remember that divisional games have been unpredictable all season long for every team, so who knows?
Over/Under: 56.5 Points
Yes, the first matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders went for 72 points, which makes 56.5 points look like a joke. But realistically, can that result be replicated?
The Raiders are a run-first offense behind one of the top five running backs in the league. The Chiefs look set to control this game. The Chiefs gave up 14 points on huge defensive mistakes and 7 more on a huge offensive mistake during the last game, which is not going to happen again.
I feel very comfortable with the under this week, to the point that I would go full Pat McAfee, telling you to “Put ‘da hammer Dahn”.