We look at the betting odds for Sunday’s fireworks display between the Panthers and the Chiefs.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been dominant this season, for the most part. As they transition into the second half of the season, they looked situated to stay that way. The combined win-loss records for their remaining eight opponents is 29-31, with only four games remaining against teams with winning records (New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Miami Dolphins, Las Vegas Raiders).
However as easy as that schedule may seem, it is not going to be an easy stretch of games at all. The Chiefs have struggled in divisional games this season, the Saints and Bucs are legitimate Super Bowl contenders, and the Dolphins are a seriously talented team that is being unfairly overlooked this season.
Then there is this weekend’s opponent, the Carolina Panthers, who, despite what a 3-5 record would suggest, are best described as the scrappiest team in the NFL.
Of their five losses, they have only lost by more then one score once against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while they have kept the Saints within a field goal, the Bears within a touchdown, and the Raiders within four. Three of their five losses came from divisional opponents, and the other two came from playoff teams, which has people looking past them and dismissing as just “rebuilding”. They have done all of this despite the fact that they lost running back Christian McCaffrey, their best player, in Week 2.
This Sunday the Panthers get a shot at the defending champions, and will be looking to continue giving great teams a hard time, hopefully with a win this time around. We break down the betting odds and offer advice for potential sports bettors.
(Author’s Note: Bet at your own risk. All odds are provided by Fanduel Sportsbook.)
Spread: Chiefs by 10.5
The Chiefs are 6-2 against the spread this season, and in games where the spread is larger than one touchdown, the Chiefs are 3-2 ATS. The only team better is the Pittsburgh Steelers who are 6-1 ATS, although they have one less game played. The Chiefs average margin of victory is 12.6 points, which is the best in the league, with the next best team in terms of MOV, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a full 2.4 points behind (10.2 points).
Despite all of this, I am not taking the Chiefs to cover.
Firstly, 10.5 points is a huge margin, especially when talking about a team like the Panthers who have only lost one game by more than one touchdown, all without their best player. When accounting for the matchups that the Panthers have against the Chiefs, however, I become less and less confident in the Chiefs ability to cover.
Of course, there is the big matchup up front between the Chiefs defensive front seven and the returning Christian Mccaffrey. The Chiefs run defense is among the worst in the league, ranking 29th in the league for running yards allowed and 28th in the league in rushing yards per attempt. Teams have taken advantage of this shortcoming to drive the field with relative ease, wear the Chiefs defense down, and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. The Chiefs have only kept two opponents under 100 yards rushing, Buffalo Bills and New York Jets, and are giving up an average of 142.7 yards rushing per game.
Enter Christian Mccaffrey, the best running back in the league. CMC is notoriously the best dual threat player the league may have ever seen, with the ability to run and catch the ball with talent that transcends the word elite. He often makes fields crowded with players look like wide-open spaces and is always just on the verge of making a big play happen every time he touches the ball. Last season, Mccaffrey averaged 5.9 yards per touch, which helped carry him to an NFL-leading 2,392 scrimmage yards to go with 19 total touchdowns.
After missing six weeks to a high ankle sprain, Mccaffrey is set to return to the field with something to prove against the Chiefs. With the Chiefs poor run defense and his drive to succeed, I expect him to be a nightmare for the Chiefs to try and handle. Sure, the Panthers’ offensive line has not been the best this year (only allowing 2.3 seconds pocket time and giving up 53 pressures) but the Panthers will be able to move past that by using screens, Mccaffrey’s best play and the Chiefs worst handled play.
Now, the Chiefs do win every other matchup on the field, like the team’s top-ranked passing offense against the Panthers mid-ranked passing defense or the Panthers mid-ranked offense against the Chiefs strong pass defense, but McCaffrey alone gives me enough doubts for the Chiefs to win by eleven or more. For that reason I go hard on the Panthers to win or lose within the spread.
Over/Under: 52.5
I have never been more confident in a pick then I am in picking the over in this matchup. The Chiefs are the most electric offense in the league, and now that the Panthers offense is complete, I fully expect them to be electric as well. This game screams “the defenses stayed in the locker rooms” to me, and with two electric offenses, that means a high-scoring slug fest.
If the split is evenly spread, each team needs to score 27 points (26.5 points) to achieve the over, and I fully expect both teams to rocket past that total. Pound the over.
Same Game Parlay Ticket
Fanduel offers a great Same Game Parlay ticket builder, and this game has so many guaranteed outcome that I thought it would be fun to build a same game parlay ticket to show you how much money you could be making through sports betting.
Of course, we are going to put the over on the ticket. It is a great base to put the ticket on and should easily give the ticket a win. From there, I definitely like Christian Mccaffrey’s odds to score any type of touchdown in this game, so add him as an any time touchdown scorer, and because it’s pretty obvious he is going to have a day, I take the over on his rushing yards (50.5 yards) and receiving yards (35.5 yards).
From there, I do not like Teddy Bridgewater to pass for more than 276.5 yards against the best pass defense in the league, so add the under on that total.
I do very much like Clyde Edwards-Helaire‘s odds to score in this game since the Panthers are one of the worst teams against the rush and defending running backs in the passing game. So add in CEH to score a touchdown at any point.
Overall with just these easy props, the current ticket would turn one hundred dollars into 4629.82 dollars. That’s a significant turn around, and their is still room for extra props if you feel confident on any other lines and want a larger return on investment.