Chiefs vs. Raiders: Betting odds, lines and advice for Week 5

We take a look at the betting odds and lines for this Sunday’s matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders.

Through a quarter of the season, I am 7-1 on my predictions on the odds, meaning readers who are betting alongside me are having a great season! Unfortunately for myself, I live in Oklahoma, a state who’s sports betting rights are in an odd and confusing limbo, meaning unless I want to figure out Bitcoin and use an international sportsbook like Mybookie or Bovada, I can not follow my own advice. Alas, I am stuck must resort to Fanduel’s fantasy betting, a much less intuitive and interesting betting service.

However, as a betting adviser with a near perfect record thus far this season, I will continue to strive to offer the best analysis and advice on the Kansas City Chiefs’ lines and odds. That of course means turning my focus to the Chiefs’ Week 5 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders.

[Author’s Note: I am not a betting professional. Bet at your own risk. Odds are provided by Fanduel Sportsbook.]

Spread: Chiefs by 11.5

The Las Vegas Raiders are a team in the midst of a serious identity crisis. They just abandoned their longtime home in Oakland for an ambitious and risky new home in Las Vegas. Jon Gruden has led them to two losing records in his two years in the position yet is probably still secure in his position for many more seasons.

Derek Carr is still just as underwhelming as.. well Derek Carr. The defense has talent but consistently underperforms, while the offense is being built on on some great players like Josh Jacobs but still struggles to put it all together. This season has been a continuation of those shortcomings and identity problems.

The Raiders won a close game against the Carolina Panthers in Matt Rhule and Teddy Bridgewater‘s first game leading the team, but then dominated Super Bowl contenders like the New Orleans Saints. They let the Patriots tee off on them with 250 yards on the ground, then stayed just one touchdown away from another contender in Buffalo and only gave up 63 yards rushing.

The Raiders have allowed the 12th most yards despite the 8th fewest offensive plays run against them, giving them the 7th most yards per play allowed with 6.2. They have only grabbed 2 turnovers, which is tied with two other teams for second least (only the Texans have fewer takeaways with zero), despite having the 10th most giveaways with 6—although not one of those giveaways is an interception.

The Raiders have the second highest scoring percentage in the league, but also have the seventh highest turnover percentage. Jacobs has the most rushing attempts in the league, but falls all the way to 8th most rushing yards, with only 3.6 yards per carry.

This is a matchup nightmare for the Raiders and exactly what the Chiefs need offensively. A team that struggles against the run and makes plenty of mistakes will give the Chiefs confidence and plenty of opportunities to get almost everyone involved. The Chiefs are one complete offensive performance away from putting it all together and this should be that performance.

Expect the Chiefs to stomp the Raiders in this game and finally send the Raiders into the spiral that will inevitably lead to them seeking a change in identity. To clarify, because Gruden is an ego-maniac with way too much power in the Raiders’ organization, this only really means that the Raiders will move on from Derek Carr this offseason and call that a “culture shift”

I would take the Chiefs by 25 here, let alone only 11.5. As matter of fact, you can bet ya house on it.

Over/Under: 55.5

If we stick to the spread, this would be a 22 to 35 game for the Chiefs. Certainly the Chiefs can score five touchdowns, although they are averaging only 3.5 touchdowns per game However they are holding opponents to only 1.75 touchdowns per game despite playing games against the likes of Deshaun Watson‘s Houston Texans and Lamar Jackson‘s Baltimore Ravens.

The Raiders are averaging 3 touchdowns per game, mind you that was against the Panthers and Saints atrocious defenses. They are also allowing 3.5 touchdowns per game which is double what the Chiefs are allowing. This should be a blowout that sees the Raiders getting smothered by the Chiefs defense that is only getting better every week, between returning talent and better playcalling.

I would not be surprised if the Chiefs managed to keep the Raiders out of the end zone and ran away with this one. However, the Chiefs are not going to score 46 points by themselves, which means I am pounding the under for this line.