NFL media picks, Week 3: Experts divided over Chiefs vs. Ravens

For the first time in what seems like ages, the Chiefs are not the overwhelming favorite in a regular-season game. So, what are the experts saying?

In what many are expecting to be the game of the year, the Kansas City Chiefs are traveling northeast to Baltimore to take on the undefeated Ravens. It could be a battle for the ages, and there are several intriguing storylines beginning to take shape.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson, Vol. III. The Marcus Peters revenge game. A dominant ground game vs. a dominant passing game. Those are just a handful of the interesting stories in the matchup set to come on Monday night.

When looking at the media’s picks, one thing is clear: No one is sure about this one and everyone expects it to be a tight game. That being said, the media appears to be leaning toward the Ravens coming away with a win in this week’s pivotal AFC matchup.

Here is what the national media is saying about this week’s potential preview of the AFC Championship game:

NFL.com

NFL.com is known by Chiefs fans for having writer Peter Schrager on board with the Chiefs before virtually anyone else in the national media. In a prominant picks article this week, Gregg Rosenthal seemed to grit his teeth while he picked against the Chiefs writing,

"Ravens: 35 Chiefs 30. Tough game to pick. Patrick Mahomes as an underdog feels like a crime against humanity, yet there’s no question the Ravens have looked like the NFL’s best team early. They pass the numbers test and the eye test. The Chiefs are 2-0 without having their offense in gear.Thirty quarterbacks have more completions of 20-plus yards than Mahomes (3), including Jeff Driskel. The Chiefs rank 17th in yards per play (5.7), and their offensive line has looked ordinary. I have no question Kansas City will snap out of it, but it’s facing a Ravens team that looks faster on offense (Devin Duvernay! Miles Boykin! J.K. Dobbins!) and tougher on defense (Calais Campbell! Derek Wolfe!). This shapes up as the early-season message from the Ravens that the Chiefs will have to respond to in January, probably back in Baltimore."

Rosenthal decided to go with the Ravens in this week’s game and he was not alone. Daniel Jeremiah, Marcus Grant, Colleen Wolfe, and Nick Shook also chose the Ravens to win the game while Cynthia Frelund, Adam Rank and Maurice Jones-Drewstuck with the Super Bowl Champions for this week. Needless to say, the people over at nfl.com are expecting a good game.

CBS

There is more of the same at CBS. No one wants to pick against Patrick Mahomes but they also don’t want to pick against Baltimore, who has been rolling over opponents with ease with the exception of the Tennessee Titans in last year’s playoffs. This sentiment continued to be echoed by CBS’s Will Brinson who said this:

"“I don’t love to simplify picks in this spot buuuuuuuuuuut I have updated my three simple rules in life to include “always bet on Patrick Mahomes if he’s getting points on a prime-time stage.” Yes, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are great, but Mahomes getting more than a field goal? It feels like a trap. Feed me the points.”The pick: Chiefs 31, Ravens 28"

Brinson decided to go with Kansas City along with his fellow writers Pete Prisco and Jason La Canfora. On the flip side, Jeremy Eisenberg, Ryan Wilson, and Dave Richard are going with Baltimore. Again, this a tough choice.

Fivethirtyeight

Fivethirtyeight is always interesting to follow. They try to use as much data and math as possible to unemotionally pick winners each week. While it is somewhat robotic and strange to not have an analyst writing about why a team will win a game based on momentum or a late-game drive, it is a different and refreshing approach. That being said, the Chiefs are not favored to come away with the victory this week. They are given a 46% chance of winning while Baltimore is given an edge of 8 percentage points at 54%.

Overview via nflpickwatch.com

While the major media sources seem more evenly split, the rest of the media is leaning toward Baltimore at a higher rate. According to nflpickwatch.com, at the time of this article, 64% of analysts are going with Baltimore as opposed to just 36% going with the Kansas City Chiefs.

In what is expected to be a great game, it can be a good thing to be the “underdog.” How Mahomes is ever an underdog, I don’t know. What I do know is this: No one is super confident in picking the Chiefs game on Monday night and that makes for great television.