Chiefs receivers could have big day against Texans secondary

The Kansas City Chiefs receiving corps should have a big edge against the Texans secondary on Thursday night.

The Kansas City Chiefs, reigning Super Bowl champions of the 2019 season, open their title defense campaign against the 2019 AFC South champions in the Houston Texans. The Texans are looking for some serious revenge after getting blown out by virtually the same Chiefs team, as 18 of 22 starters remain from last season, in the 2019 AFC Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs.

It’s no secret that the Chiefs in 2020 boast one of the most intimidating receiving corps in recent memory. All Pros Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill headline a list that also includes veterans Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson, and promising up-and-comer Mecole Hardman. Aside from talent, every single one of these players boasts elite speed and quickness that make them a struggle to cover for even the best in the game.

Unfortunately for the Houston Texans, one would not look at their secondary and walk away with the idea they were among the best in the game. In fact, one would more likely look at the following three factors, individual talent, basic defensive production and advanced defensive production, and cringe at the thought of this secondary taking on the 2020 Chiefs receivers.

Individual Talent

If you start for a professional team you are a great player, but not every great player is a great starter. That is specifically the case when considering the Texans secondary. According to Pro Football Focus, the Texans best secondary player Justin Reid graded a respectable 76.7 in 2019. The grades decline dramatically from there.

A unit that consists of Reid, Eric Murray, Bradley Roby, Gareon Conley, and Vernon Hargreaves averaged 63.08 in 2019. While this isn’t a dismal score, it’s clear this is far from an elite set of parts. Are the sum of parts enough to make for a competitive unit?

Let’s take a look at the Texans defense’s basic and advanced production in 2019 to find out.

Basic Production

Things don’t get much better when you look at the unit as a whole. In 2019, the Texans defense ranked in the lower half in all the following categories for the season:

• 17th in opponent completion percentage allowed – 63.23%
• 24th in opponent yards per pass attempt – 7.2 yards/attempt
• 26th in opponent yards per pass completion – 11.5 yards/attempt
• 29th in opponent passing touchdowns per game – 2.2 touchdowns/game
• 29th in opponent passing yards per game – 269.2/game

As dismal as these rankings are, almost every single one of them is worse when the Houston Texans hit the road:

• 14th in opponent completion percentage allowed – 62.85%
• 26th in opponent yards per pass attempt – 7.4 yards/attempt
• 30th in opponent yards per pass completion – 11.8 yards/attempt
• 32nd in opponent passing touchdowns per game – 2.6 touchdowns/game
• 31st in passing yards per game – 295.9 yards/game

Advanced Production

Basic statistics don’t really tell the whole story. An advanced statistical model is usually needed that incorporates basic production and competition. For that, we look no further than Football Outsiders DVOA metric.

DVOA measures a team’s efficiency, or success, on a play-by-play average based on a number of factors dealing with situation, such as 3rd and long, and the opponent. This composite number is then compared to the league average to create overall rankings.

The story for the Texans pass defense doesn’t get rosier the more we delve into it. Football Outsiders ranked them 26th overall with none of the teams ranked below them making the playoffs. In fact, they were one of only three teams in the bottom half of the league in pass defense to make it to the postseason.

Conclusion

You can make the case this is a different unit then the one that posted these numbers last season, and that’s a fair case to be made. I’d actually argue they downgraded in terms of overall talent, losing a number of starters and contributors since the last time these two teams met. If that’s not enough to convince you, consider the Texans have a new defensive coordinator at the helm. This is a tough first task.

If you are a fantasy footballer who happens to have Chiefs receivers on your team, now might be a good time to put them in your starting lineup. The Texans simply do not have the firepower in their secondary, or their defense as a whole for that matter, to contend with the bevy of talent at Patrick Mahomes’ disposal. Look for the Chiefs receivers to have a big day against their neighbors to the South, and start their championship defense with a bang.