The Kansas City Chiefs could lose a ton of free agents in 2021
After this season, a lower cap and numerous free agents could create a problem for the Chiefs.
The Kansas City Chiefs may be the most talented team in the NFL. Not only do they have the best quarterback in the league in Patrick Mahomes (regardless of what the NFL top 100 list says), they have a stable of of top-flight players like Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mitchell Schwartz, Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and Tyrann Mathieu, as well as numerous other talented (but lesser known) players that fill out a deep roster that can survive injuries and setbacks as they arise.
If the NFL is able to play out a full season in 2020, there is every reason to believe the Chiefs have a good chance to come out as Super Bowl champions again, thanks to the roster that general manager Brett Veach has built. However, the 2021 season looks like it will deliver some major challenges for the Chiefs bright young GM.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that this isn’t going to be a normal NFL season. Even if the NFL is able to keep games going despite the situation with Covid-19 and they make it all the way to Super Bowl LV, the league is likely to see a huge hit in revenue since many games will either have limited fans or no fans at all. That means a substantial loss of revenue from tickets, parking, concessions, and stadium merchandise. Yes, the television money will still be there as long as games are played, but it’s a guarantee at this point that the NFL will see a drop in revenue for the first time in a very long time. That loss of revenue will be severely compounded if the league has to cut the season short, thus losing out on television revenue as well.
The point of all this is, for the first time in recent memory, the NFL could be looking at a significant drop in the salary cap in 2021. In the negotiations for the 2020 season, the NFL and NFLPA did agree that the floor of the 2021 cap would be $175 million. That doesn’t mean that the cap is set at that amount, just that it will not go any lower be any lower.
A $175 million cap would be a problem for the Chiefs. Not only would it be a drop of about $25 million from what it was in 2020, it would be a $35-40 million loss from what most were expecting the cap to be in 2021 before the pandemic became an issue. That’s not just throwing a wrench in Brett Veach’s plans for 2021; it’s throwing the entire tool box at it and then setting it on fire.
The good news is that the foundation of the roster is set and secure. Every one of the star players I listed in the introduction is under contract in 2021. If you have a team built around those seven stars, you have a chance. However, the depth of the team could take a massive hit. I went through the entire roster at Over the Cap and found a staggering 25 players who have a chance to make K.C.’s 53-man roster in 2020 who are also set to be free agents after this season. TWENTY FIVE.
Unfortunately it gets worse. The Chiefs are already at about $200 million in salary cap dollars for 2021 WITHOUT those 25 future free agents. That means that if the cap were to drop to $175 million next season the Chiefs would be $25 million over the cap ($12 million if they roll over every single dollar in space they have right now) without re-signing any of those players. Now I trust Brett Veach and I know that NFL teams find ways to get around the cap all the time, but that is not a promising situation to overcome.
Why bring this up now? Well, I’m wondering if this situation could have an impact on some of the roster spots in 2020. Let’s say the Chiefs have a spot that would likely go to one of the 25 players on this list, but the next guy up behind them is an undrafted player that the Chiefs signed to a cheap three-year deal. If the Chiefs keep the veteran, that’s a spot they have to fill next offseason when they are against the cap. If they cut the veteran now and keep the undrafted rookie, the spot is now filled in 2021 with a cheaper player who already has a year in the system.
The expanded practice squad could be a huge help to the Chiefs as well. Don’t be surprised if the practice squad if full of guys that K.C. could bump up to the active roster in 2021 in place of guys on this list. Active roster cuts and practice squad signings will be very interesting to watch as Veach tries to give the Chiefs the best roster to win a Super Bowl in 2020 while also maintaining a plan for continued success in unstable financial waters.
Let’s go position by position and look at which players the Chiefs are poised to lose next offseason. The good news is that there aren’t many “stars” on this list, but there are some quality starters and a lot of guys the Chiefs rely on for depth and special teams.
Let’s start with the quarterback position.