Betting advice for the 2020 Kansas City Chiefs season
Travis Kelce
Total Receptions O/U – 93.5 (-120)
If you’re unfamiliar with sports gambling abbreviations and numbers, here’s what this means: this means that if you took the bet, you’d be choosing whether or not Kelce had over (more than) or under (less than) 93.5 receptions during the 2020 season. -120 means that regardless of which side you wager on, you’ll need to wager $120 in order to potentially win $100 (so the payout would be $220 on a $120 wager).
In order to reach 94 receptions (the over), Kelce needs to average almost six receptions per game. Kelce has 103 and 97 receptions over the last two seasons, but failed to break 90 in his four other seasons in the league. The Chiefs have a lot of weapons and quarterback Patrick Mahomes will likely spread the ball around.
Recommendation: Pass on this bet
Total Yards O/U – 1100.5 (-110)
All the above vernacular applies except that for this bet you need only wage $110 in order to win $100 ($210 payout for a winning bet). Kelce has over 1100 yards in three of the last four seasons (and missed a game in 2017 or he likely would have that year, too). The gamble here is whether or not Kelce stays healthy, because there is no question he’ll have over 100 targets if he plays 16 games, and the Chiefs offense is going to be very difficult to stop. Injuries have not been an issue for Kelce.
Recommendation: Take the Over
Total Touchdowns O/U – 7.5 (Over: -130; Under: -110)
This is the first bet we’ve seen where the odds are different depending on which side you choose. -130 versus -110 means that Kelce is favored to have eight or more scores in 2020 (payout is less per $100 wagered).
Here’s the thing, though: Kelce only has eight or more touchdowns in two of his six seasons in the NFL, and only had five a season ago when the Chiefs had less weapons (the team lost no skill position players and added first round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Recommendation: Take the Under
Lead the League in Receiving Yards +2200
+2200 means that if you were to bet $100 on Kelce leading the league in receiving yards, and he did so, you’d win $2200 – that’s a huge payout! However, we talked in the beginning about sucker bets. This is one of them. Not only does Kelce rarely catch “deep” passes, he’s also comparatively slow. In addition, the Chiefs are absolutely stacked on offense.
Recommendation: Pass on this bet
Offensive Player of the Year +5000
The number ($100 bet to win $5000) is tempting – but there is no way that Travis Kelce will be named the Offensive Player of the Year – he plays the wrong position and his load share is not high enough.
Recommendation: Pass on this bet