The Chiefs must learn from Packers’ mistakes with Aaron Rodgers

The Chiefs must learn from the Packers’ mistakes when it comes to building around a franchise quarterback.

In case you missed it, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have consummated their long-term relationship with a 10 year, $503 million contract extension which keeps the Super Bowl LIV MVP in K.C. through the 2031 season. Essentially, both Mahomes and general manager Brett Veach have proven that what they’ve said for two years is true: the former MVP quarterback wanted to be a Chief for life and the team was committed to making that a reality.

That was the easy part.

Now comes the real challenge for Veach and Company: to build a championship-caliber roster, season-after-season, for his franchise quarterback.

In 1994, with Steve Young taking up 13.1% of their salary cap, the San Francisco 49ers won Super Bowl XXVIII. That percentage of the cap on a single player for a Super Bowl winning team is still the all-time record, 26 years later. According to Over the Cap, only three players (all quarterbacks, of course) have won the Super Bowl while accounting for 10% or more of their team’s salary cap: “Eli Manning in 2011 (11.7%), Peyton Manning in 2006 (10.4%), and Brett Favre in 1996 (10.2%).” The average, OTC goes on to say, is just 6.4%.

Presuming stable salary cap growth, when Mahomes new contract goes on the books in 2022, the 2018 NFL MVP will account for north of 15% of the cap. And, at its’ peak in 2027, with a $59 million cap hit, Mahomes could surpass 20% of Kansas City’s total salary cap.

Despite the history and data, this only becomes a problem if Veach fails to commit time and energy to the correct people and places on the roster and in the draft. Most general managers fail at this task.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are the ultimate case study in to exactly how not to support your superstar quarterback on their mega-contract. In 2010, when Rodgers led the Packers to the Super Bowl XLV Championship, the team flourished offensively, averaging over 24 points per game. The team also excelled defensively, allowing the second least amount of points per game in the NFL, at just 15 per contest. The team had five different players record over 40 receptions that season, including three who would (at points in their career) be Pro Bowlers.

Since that time, the team has never invested a first round pick in a skill position player (running back, tight end or wide receiver), and in fact has only drafted three offensive players in total: two tackles and in 2020, a quarterback in Jordan Love.

This is not how you should go about building a dynasty around a strong-armed, uber-talented quarterback like Rodgers or, in the Chiefs case, Mahomes.

It now appears that, despite being only two games from Super Bowl LIV, Green Bay has turned its’ attention to life after Rodgers, with the drafting of his theoretical replacement. Rodgers, like Brett Favre before him, is unlikely to wish to take a backup role and may or may not be interested in even mentoring the rookie. In that case, he may not be around much longer for the Packers.

If Aaron Rodgers departs Wisconsin having won only one Super Bowl Championship, the Packers will have wasted one of the most talented quarterbacks the league has ever seen.

And Brett Veach, and the Kansas City Chiefs, would be wise to learn from all of Green Bay’s mistakes.

Weapons

For starters, working in reverse-chronological order, if your team is two wins from the Super Bowl, but fails to reach the promised land due to ineffectiveness in the passing game, cutting your starting tight end (and second best pass catcher) while failing to replace them, and drafting a quarterback in the first round is unlikely to be the correct response. Instead, Green Bay, in one of the deepest wide receiver draft class classes of all time, should have opted to provide Rodgers another receiving threat.

In the second round, they opted for a running back—this despite the fact that leading rusher Aaron Jones accounted for over 1,000 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns a season ago. Even their number two back, Jamal Williams, rushed for over 400 yards. Running back, too, was not a need.

Lesson Learned: The Chiefs must keep drafting offensive weapons to put around Mahomes. This is the most important thing we’ve learned from Green Bay. Given the selections of wide receiver Mecole Hardman in 2019 and running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2020, Veach seems committed to this.

Offensive Line

In addition to a lack of weaponary, after drafting tackles in back-to-back first rounds in 2010 and 2011, the Packers have gone through the next nine drafts only investing two top 100 draft picks in the offensive line (and missing on both, frankly).

The result is that Aaron Rodgers, despite above average mobility, has been sacked on 6.9% of all dropbacks in his career, including twice leading the league in sacks taken, notching over 50 both times. In fact, Rodgers has ranked in the top five across the NFL in sacks taken six times, has placed once more in the top 10, and has missed most of two seasons with injury in that span. Only once since 2010, when starting a full season, has Aaron Rodgers been outside of the top 15 in sacks taken, when he was 16th in 2014.

Lesson Learned: The Chiefs must invest heavily in the offensive line, and they must be right about their investments. In two seasons as the starter, Mahomes has been sacked 34 times (2018, ranked 15th) and 23 times (2019, ranked 28th, but missed two starts). Right now, Kansas City has one of the best pair of tackles in football. We’ll see what the future holds.

Identity

Over the course of the last decade, as is obvious (deductively) from the above, the Packers have invested a ton of draft resources on the defensive side of the ball. But, they have not invested in having a defensive identity.

Instead, what Green Bay has done amounts to throwing darts at the wall to see what sticks. They have not identified cornerstone pieces and then invested around them.

Lesson Learned: Kansas City must choose defensive leaders that give the unit a true identity and serve as cornerstones for the squad for years to come. Frank Clark has been selected as piece number one. Who’s next? It could be defensive end Chris Jones or safety Tyrann Mathieu. It could also be someone younger like safety Juan Thornhill or linebacker Willie Gay, Jr.

With Mahomes, wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce entrenched as offensive cornerstones for the foreseeable future, Veach has room for only one or two more long term defensive contracts—in addition to Frank Clark.

Over the next 12-24 months, he’ll have to make decisions about new deals for Jones and Mathieu, and about extensions for cornerback Charvarius Ward and Thornhill. These decisions must not only sustain identity for a budding Chiefs’ defense, but they must also be made with foresight as to what the team can replace with cheaper, yet still effective, veteran free agents and draft picks.