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Super Bowl Odds & Pick: 49ers vs. Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -1.5
- Over/Under: 53.5
- Date & Time: Sunday, Feb. 2 at 6:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
- Location: Miami
Super Bowl 54 Spread Analysis
Kansas City was the most profitable team to bet on this season, going 12-5-1 against the spread, covering by an average of 4.56 points. Of course, San Francisco was no slouch, either, going 11-6-1 with an average margin of +6.83.
The Chiefs’ run defense — which ranked 29th in Football Outsiders’ schedule-adjusted efficiency metric (DVOA) during the regular season — was a concern they were ultimately able to overcome against the Titans, holding Derrick Henry to 19 carries for 69 yards in the AFC Championship Game. This 49ers running game may be even scarier, though: They averaged the second-most rushing yards per game over the regular season (144.1) and another 235.5 per game in their two playoff wins.
The difference between the Titans and 49ers is that San Francisco also has a top-tier defense that’s harder to build a commanding lead against.
Of course, that defense hasn’t met an offense quite like Kansas City’s. San Francisco faced the two highest-scoring offenses in the league besides itself in the regular season, losing 20-17 to Baltimore and winning 48-46 against New Orleans.
This could come down to something as simple as the coin toss and which team takes a lead first.
The Chiefs have shown they can come from behind after starting slow, but that will be harder to do against the 49ers, who get pressure without blitzing better than any team in the league. On the other hand, despite showing they could win a shootout, the 49ers are clearly better when they’re playing from ahead.
Ultimately, I see slight value on the 49ers here, as I feel most models are overweighting Weeks 14-17, when they were the most banged-up on defense.
My Initial Projection: Pick ’em
My Early Pick: 49ers +1.5 (-110)
Super Bowl 54 Over/Under Analysis
The 49ers were the only team to allow fewer yards per play than the Patriots, and the Chiefs were held to 23 points in a 23-16 victory in that contest. However, that was against a less potent Patriots offense, and the over went 10-8 overall in Chiefs games this season. And despite the 49ers’ reputation as a defensive team, overs have gone 9-8-1 in their games.
The 49ers are averaging 30.2 points per game this season and the Chiefs are averaging 29.7. This game will feature arguably the NFL’s two best play-callers in Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare, so I think we’ll see a fairly high-scoring game. But after opening at 51.5-52.5 at most books, the total has shot past my initial number.
Casual bettors generally tend to pound overs, so it’s worth seeing how high it climbs before placing a wager on the under.
My Initial Projection: 53
Chris Raybon is 237-187-15 (55.9%) overall betting on the NFL. Follow his picks in our free app.