Vegas and bettors heavily favor the Kansas City Chiefs in their upcoming conference championship matchup against the Tennessee Titans.
The Kansas City Chiefs likely made some bettors very upset last week.
The Kansas City Chiefs were given a 10 point spread, meaning that bettors who had money on the Houston Texans did not just have a 24 point advantage in the first quarter, but a 34 point advantage. A 35 point comeback seems impossible in the playoffs, but alas, it happened. This is without mentioning the Chiefs almost single-handedly covering the over/under score, blowing out any bettors on the under.
With the Conference Championship ahead of us, it is important to look into Vegas’ betting numbers, not only to help the Kingdom feel secure in their chances to win, but to also help guide aspiring and long time sports bettors in how best to win some extra money this upcoming weekend.
Speaking of K.C.’s chances to win, no better place to start than with the spread, where Action Network has the Kansas City Chiefs favored by 7.5 points. This is a pretty significant spread for a conference championship game (for context, last year’s conference championship spreads were K.C. by 3 over New England and New Orleans Saints by 3.5 over the L.A. Rams). This is especially so, considering that during the underdogs here already beat the Chiefs this season.
By betting on the Chiefs, you are favoring K.C. to win by 8 points, which may not be completely impossible, with the Chiefs having won by 8 or more points 7 times thus far, including a 20-point victory over the Houston Texans during the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The last team to be within 8 points of the Chiefs final score were the New England Patriots in Week 14, where they kept the Chiefs within 7 points and failed in the final moments of the game to tie it up.
To go along with a significant spread is an underwhelming money line, where the Action Network has a -340 line (as of press time) for the Chiefs. This means that any bettor looking to put money on the Chiefs would have to put up $340 in order to win $100. While not the worst line of the season, this line does not mesh well with the spread provided, showing how heavily Vegas is favoring the Chiefs to come away with a win.
The final metric worth looking into is the over/under, which currently sits at 53, giving a base score of 23-30 in KC’s favor. This number seems low, especially for a team that scored a touchdown on 7 straight drives last week and another running the ball and advancing the chains as well as they are. By keeping the score low, Vegas is projecting an offensive game, but one where K.C. is able to stop Derrick Henry eventually.
[DISCLAIMER: The writer does not have any money bet on any of the scenarios listed above. Bet at your own risk.]