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There’s tons of value to be had betting NFL props. And with the slates getting smaller with the playoffs, I’m peeling the curtain back on my full prop betting process.
Below is a guide to key player props for Sunday’s Divisional Round matchup featuring the Texans at Chiefs and Seahawks at Packers. That includes props I’m betting — or looking to bet once lines reach a certain threshold — based on my projections.
I’ve also created a downloadable spreadsheet calculator, which you can use to plug in the lines at your books and automatically calculate the exact edge on four of the prop markets we’ll cover. Note that I typically wouldn’t bet a prop unless the line offers a 58% edge according to my calculations, so every pick I’ve outlined in the following analysis reaches at least that threshold.
Now let’s dig into the slate.
NFL Divisional Round Props & Picks
Texans Props & Picks
Markets are pretty thin for the Texans with Will Fuller a game-time decision as of writing. Follow me in our free app to get alerts if/when I bet any Texans player props closer to kickoff.
Chiefs Props & Picks
Patrick Mahomes
Books are offering 1.5 and 2.5 passing touchdowns for Mahomes this week. Based on my 2.34-touchdown projection, these are what the “true odds” would be for this market:
- Over 1.5 (-210); Under 1.5 (+210)
- Over 2.5 (+140); Under 2.5 (-140)
I haven’t seen any site offering value on either number yet, but it’s handy to have these fair odds just in case something pops up.
Damien Williams
Williams’ receiving prop market warrants the most attention in this game.
He’s been in and out of the lineup due to injury, which has made the Chiefs backfield a headache to project all season. The final two games of the regular season, however, Williams appeared to be 100% and acted as their featured back.
I have him projected for 3.3 receptions, which translates to an average of 23.2 yards in my simulations, a median of 19.5 yards and a longest reception median of 10.0 yards.
There’s a lot to unpack here, so let me break them down individually:
- Receiving Yards: FanDuel is offering Under 23.5 (-102), and I have the under hitting 59.2% of the time. The -102 price tag makes this bet even more enticing and is a play for me.
- Longest Reception: SugarHouse is offering Under 13.5 (-115), and I have this around a 65% chance of hitting. I would bet this down to about -170, which means there is plenty of value here.
- Receptions: FanDuel has this down to 2.5, and while it may be tempting to bet all three, I would caution against it. In a situation like this that involves the same player and type of stat, it’ll be very tough to hit all three. In fact, you would hit on all three only 11.8% of the time, so I would stick with both unders.
The larger point that needs to be made is that I actually do like Williams’ receiving potential. However, the underlying math on the difference between mean and median projections gives us a solid edge on the under for his receiving yards.
PICK: Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-102)
PICK: Longest Reception Under 13.5 (-115)
Packers Props & Picks
Aaron Rodgers
The last eight quarterback who have faced the Seahawks (and finished the game) have gone over their season-average passing yards per game. And Rodgers has averaged 250.1 yards per game this season, which makes the Over 251.5 passing yards (-108) at FanDuel tempting.
I have Rodgers projected for 256.5 yards, but included this prop in the tool at the end of this story so you can plug in better numbers if they come along and calculate whether there’s enough edge to pull the trigger on the over.
It’s worth noting that in Week 17, Rodgers attempted 17 passes of 20 or more yards. He was able to connect on only three of them, but it’s safe to say his 323-yard day could have been much bigger had he connected on a few more.
Jamaal Williams
Williams is set to return after a shoulder injury forced him to miss Week 17.
I’m betting he doesn’t return to split work with Aaron Jones and could see a slightly-reduced role than usual. This is a must-win game and Jones had 25-plus touches over the final two games of the regular season, proving he’s more than capable of a true workhorse role.
The best market to attack is Williams’ receiving prop. PointsBet has it set at 17.5, and I have Jamaal projected for 1.8 receptions, which generates a median of 10.5 yards. In fact, about 17% of the time he will fail to record a reception while 73% of the time he will have two or fewer.
This prop could survive two receptions fairly often — it’s when he grabs three balls that we would be in danger of the over hitting. That scenario has a 27% chance of happening, and it all ends with a 69.6% chance he finishes with fewer than 17.5 receiving yards.
Since we could see other books post a different number/juice, I added this to the player prop calculator so you can figure out the edge your book is providing.
PICK: Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-119)
Aaron Jones
Based on my simulations, Jones’ median longest rush is 15 yards. PointsBet is offering the 10- to 19-yard band at +108. This really is his sweet spot for this prop, and I would have the fair odds for this closer to 54% or -115. There’s enough value here to nibble a bit on that number.
Full disclosure: I would bet roughly three times as much on Williams’ prop vs. this prop. It’s important to invest more heavily on props offering a higher edge and vice versa. The best way to approximate how much to bet can be done using a Kelly Criterion Calculator. I’m planning to add that additional calculation to my player prop calculator tool for the Conference Championships, so be sure to check back next week.
Seahawks Props & Picks
Tyler Lockett
I wrote at length how the under on Lockett’s receiving yard prop had a ton of sneaky value last week. He racked up 62 yards through the air with 11:30 left in the second quarter, then failed to record a catch the rest of the game, allowing the under 65.5 to hit.
That just about sums up the boom/bust nature of Lockett and how betting the under on his median offers sneaky value most weeks. This week is no different as I have his median yardage at 63, but his median at 58.
Books are offering his prop in the 64.5 to 65.5 range again this week. I would like to see if any book offers 66.5 as that would meet my 58% threshold I personally like to hit, but anything 63.5 or above is offering +EV on the under.
The other market to attack here is his longest reception market. I’ve seen 22.5 and 23.5 offered at books, and both numbers are offering enough value to warrant a bet from me, but obviously we’ll want to take the better number of 23.5 if we have access to it. Always remember that every yard counts, especially in a market such as this one.
I’ve added both of these props to the calculator to play around with different numbers that may be offered.
One more note about these two props is that they’re highly-correlated. If one side hits, it’s very likely that same side hits for the other prop. I pulled out the chances of the four different outcomes to illustrate my point:
- Over 65.5 Rec Yds & Over 23.5 Longest Rec: 32.4%
- Over 65.5 Rec Yds & Under 23.5 Longest Rec: 11.4%
- Under 65.5 Rec Yds & Over 23.5 Longest Rec: 9.5%
- Under 65.5 Rec Yds & Under 23.5 Longest Rec: 46.7%
PICK: Under 65.5 Receiving Yards
PICK: Under 23.5 Longest Reception
Divisional Round Player Props Calculator
Click this link to download the spreadsheet with my player props calculator for Aaron Rodgers, Damien Williams, Jamaal Williams and Tyler Lockett.
Simply use the dropdown menu in Column C to adjust the lines accordingly, plug the right vig into Columns F and G, then my calculated edges will auto-populate Columns D and E.
Here’s a preview of what the spreadsheet looks like: