Aside from Thornhill, the Chiefs are very healthy
Probably one of the most significant factors playing a part in the up and down season for the Chiefs in 2019 was the team’s health. For numerous weeks, the offense was missing pivotal starters along the offensive line and at the skill positions. Patrick Mahomes himself dealt with nagging ankle injuries before suffering the most notable injury of the 2019 NFL season: his dislocated knee. I can’t remember a season where the Chiefs dealt with this amount of injuries.
Week 6, the last time the Chiefs and Texans played, was no different. In that game the Chiefs were missing a number of starters including Eric Fisher, Andrew Wylie, Chris Jones, and Sammy Watkins. Not to beat a dead horse, but Fisher’s replacement Cam Erving struggled significantly to protect Mahomes in Fisher’s stead.
While Tyreek Hill technically made his return in the Texans game, and actually had a big impact in the box score, he only played just over 20 snaps. Hill’s value is not just in his production, but in the way opposing defenses must play when he is on the field. This often leads to less pressure on other skill players.
Fortunately enough, this time around that will not be the case. According to the latest injury report, outside of players with personal matters or late season maintenance, the Chiefs should be fully healthy going into Sunday’s contest. Expectations should be high for their performance, especially that of the offense.
The Chiefs offense could have one of its best days of the season
The Chiefs have had one of the best offenses in the past several years. This year they have been on a slight decline, but have still outperformed most teams in many of the major metrics. Football Outsiders ranks the Chiefs offensive DVOA, an advanced metric that takes a team’s basic production and bakes in factors like strength of opponents, as third overall in the NFL.
That said, given the Texans are a playoff team and actually beat the Chiefs the first time around, I would have guessed expectations would be this game would be close. Yet according to Las Vegas, this shouldn’t be a close game at all. The opening line had the Chiefs favored by 8.5 points, and that number has actually increased as the days have gone on.
At first I was shocked. That seems like a large point spread for a playoff game, especially one like Sunday’s contest. The Texans are scrappy, and even beat the Chiefs the first time around. However, the more research I did the more convinced I became that the Chiefs offense is primed to have one of it’s best days of the season. One of which the Texans offense will struggle to match.
Why is this? There are numerous reasons. The Texans are 17th on the road in points allowed with nearly 24 a game. They’re last on the road in yards allowed as one of only two teams allowing 400 or more. They’re also last on the road in yards per play and last on the road in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Probably the most telling stat is the Texans red zone percentage. They rank last in the league on the season allowing touchdowns on 71 percent of opponent’s trips, and are even worse over the last three games allowing an insane conversion of 86 percent. You might say to yourself, maybe they’ve played a tough schedule? That could be a major reason why their defense has struggled, couldn’t it?
Unfortunately for Texans fans, the advanced metrics don’t paint a prettier picture. According to DVOA, when you factor in the Texans schedule and various other factors their defense is one of the worst in the league ranking 26th. In fact, they’re the only team in the bottom 10 and one of only two in the bottom 16 to have made the playoffs.
Probably most importantly, as stated earlier, the Chiefs offense is much healthier than they were when they played the Texans the first time around. When you consider that along with the fact the Texans defense has been poor on the season and even more poor on the road, it starts to make sense why Vegas expects the Chiefs to roll. However, expectations shouldn’t just be high for the offense.