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Chargers at Chiefs Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Chiefs -8
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
The Chiefs close out the regular season at Arrowhead Stadium against their division rival Chargers. Bettors are heavily backing the AFC West champions with 86% of tickets taking Kansas City to cover. However, just 39% of betting tickets are on the over in this matchup.
Will these two defenses keep the scoring low? Our experts preview the key matchups to watch for in this game below.
Chargers-Chiefs Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Chiefs
The Chiefs had their usual suspects on the injury report in cornerback Morris Claiborne (shoulder) and offensive lineman Andrew Wylie (ankle/shoulder). Both have at least been limited in practice.
The Chargers had Philip Rivers (thumb) pop up on the injury report Wednesday with a thumb injury, but I’d be incredibly shocked if he didn’t play in this game. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Chiefs Defense vs. Chargers Offense
Despite a strong collection of skill-position talent in running backs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and tight end Hunter Henry, Rivers has led the Chargers offense to a disappointing 21.1 points per game (21st in the NFL).
Only five times in 15 games have the Chargers topped 20 points, including just 2-of-9 without left tackle Russell Okung, who is iffy to play this week with a groin injury.
The Chiefs are known for their explosive, Patrick Mahomes-led offense, but they’ve quietly turned in a strong campaign on the other side of the ball. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit ranks seventh in points allowed per game (19.1) and 10th in schedule-adjusted efficiency, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
It’s also peaking at the right time, with its last five opponents able to muster just 9.6 points per game. Over the past two contests, the Chiefs have given up two field goals. Six points. That’s it.
K.C. held the Chargers to 17 points in Week 12 in Mexico City and should be good for a similar showing at Arrowhead, where the under is 36-22-1 (62.1%) in the Andy Reid era. — Chris Raybon
Expert Pick
Matthew Freedman: Under 45.5
Whenever the Chiefs are home, I almost always automatically bet the under.
That might seem counterintuitive: If the team with one of the best offenses in the league is at home, shouldn’t we expect that team to score more points than usual? And wouldn’t that drive the game to the over?
With the Chiefs, that historically hasn’t been the case.
Under head coach Andy Reid (since 2013), the Chiefs have actually scored 2.9 fewer points at home than on the road. That’s easily the most negative home/away offensive scoring differential in the league.
In fact, Chiefs games have an NFL-worst home/away total differential of -7.8 points. In Kansas City, NFL games rank No. 27 with a mere 43.3 points. On the road, Chiefs games blow out with 51.0 points, the No. 2 mark in the league.
Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to score, for both the home and visiting teams. In the Reid era, no home team has made under bettors more money than the Chiefs have with their 36-21-1 under record (including playoffs, 23% ROI).
I would bet the under on this game down to 45.
Freedman is 542-411-22 (56.9%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.