What are the chances of the Chiefs claiming Josh Gordon?

The New England Patriots released Josh Gordon. What are the Kansas City Chiefs chances of claiming him (and winning) on waivers?

The idea sounds very nice on the surface.

The New England Patriots released wide receiver Josh Gordon from the roster on Thursday, which means the talented but oft-maligned star will be subject to waiver claims from other teams. In essence, a team like the Kansas City Chiefs could put in a claim and win Gordon for the price of whatever he was scheduled to earn ($2.025 million) prorated for the rest of the season.

In a vacuum, the most would be a nice boost for the Chiefs offense—not that there are really that many targets to go around as is. After all, the ability to add any player with Gordon’s talent for absolutely nothing but a half season’s worth of salary is always a good move.

Sure, the Chiefs might not have a glaring need at wide receiver of all positions, given the presence of Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins atop the depth chart. Mecole Hardman has looked good in limited duty and deserves more snaps as is, and even Demarcus Robinson has shown up big when his team needed him.

For the Chiefs, Gordon would hardly be the offensive focal point, but therein lies the beauty of it. Gordon would give the Chiefs maximum insurance for a Super Bowl run in a year where they’ve already missed both Watkins and Hill with injuries. Given Watkins’ past in particular, there’s no guarantee the team’s 1A wideout will be there when it matters most, so Gordon would make this an all-star team when healthy and a seamless transition to surmount any hurdles.

Unfortunately, the Chiefs are unlikely to be the team who grabs him on waivers. The reason? Gordon is likely going to command at least a decent contract in the offseason if he can prove to have stayed eligible to play for a full season. If Gordon signs a nice free agent deal in March, he will provide some level of a compensatory pick in the following draft.

Consider this: the Miami Dolphins just took on Aqib Talib and his $5 million salary for the sake of securing a fifth round choice from the L.A. Rams. They will also receive whatever compensatory pick Talib provides when he signs elsewhere in the offseason. Grabbing Gordon will be the exact same strategy for a team, likely the Dolphins, atop the waiver order. In short, any team should be willing to grab Gordon now for a comp pick later on. It’s akin to paying $1 million for an extra mid-round draft choice.

That means that Gordon-on-waivers is less about production this year for the teams with the best chance. It’s more about what Gordon provides down the road, which is frustrating for what he could provide a contender like the Chiefs in the postseason.

Gordon has 20 catches for 287 yards and 1 touchdown so far this season.