Kansas City Chiefs still projected to win 11 games in 2019

Despite losing three of their last four games, the Kansas City Chiefs are still projected to win 11 games and win their 4th straight division title in 2019.

The Kansas City Chiefs have lost three of their last four games, face another tough opponent in the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, are still without their starting quarterback and have a number of significant players missing on both sides of the ball.

No matter. The Chiefs are still projected to win 11 games and walk away from 2019 with their fourth straight division title in the AFC West.

Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com has put together a predictive model at the halfway point of the regular season to recalculate expected win totals on the year for each franchise. Despite the recent momentum (or lack of it) on the part of the Chiefs, Andy Reid and company are still expected to win 75 percent of their remaining games to take home an opening round postseason bye and a division crown.

Frelund notes the Chiefs have a better than 77 percent chance to still make the playoffs and writes:

"“The Chiefs project to give the Pats their toughest remaining test in Foxborough in Week 14, with a healthy Kansas City team currently upsetting Tom Brady and Co. in about 45.2 percent of simulations.”"

The Pats, of course, are the New England Patriots and the No. 1 overall team in the AFC. The two teams meet in Week 14 in what will be the toughest remaining game for the Chiefs by far.

What is interesting, however, is how easy the second half schedule looks compared to the preseason predictions. The Chicago Bears went from Super Bowl hopefuls to a team needing significant help at the game’s most important position. The L.A. Chargers will always be a tough rival, but they seem ready for the draft this year and face a hellish schedule in the second half. The Raiders and Broncos remain in play for another game and the Chiefs also get Ryan Tannehill leading the Tennessee Titans just before the bye.

In other words, the Chiefs should be getting healthier even as the competition is getting easier.

It hasn’t been a pretty second month of the season, but the Chiefs have weathered a serious storm. If they can beat the Vikings on Sunday, they’ll be right on par with expectations—even ones that have been recalculated. This is still a very talented team with every reason to believe they can represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.