NFL odds: Private bettors like Jaguars instead of Chiefs

Given the initial line of -4.5 for the Kansas City Chiefs, many private bettors have been taking the Jaguars in Week 1.

Darren Rovell says that more betting action has come in on the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars than any other NFL game this week. What might surprise you is that there’s a definite divide between the public and the “sharps.”

A sharp is basically defined by the name itself—a professional bettor so named a sharp because their instincts are sharper than the average fan making a wager. This person might make their living from it and oddsmakers tend to watch where sharps are spending their money to know how to adjust the line.

The Chiefs line has already moved a full point after opening at -4.5. Rovell of Action Network says this game is a true competition between the casual bettor who clearly is enamored with the Chiefs offense and Patrick Mahomes versus the bettors who supposedly know better.

It’s interesting to hear such support for the Jags, although it’s certainly not unfounded.

• Nick Foles should be a decent step up from Blake Bortles in consistency at the game’s most important position.
• The Jags defense remains a Top 5 unit with potential for an even higher ceiling given the youth along the front line (Josh Allen, Taven Bryan).
• Jacksonville is hosting the game.
• Leonard Fournette is healthy.
• K.C.’s offense could come out sputtering like most teams in Week 1 instead of being in a midseason stride.

It should be a much closer game given all of these parameters, but it’s not as if the Chiefs are the same team they were last year. The defense has been completely remade, although last year’s unit dominated Jacksonville. The Chiefs also added more firepower in LeSean McCoy and Mecole Hardman on the offensive side.

Even more, a few of the aforementioned factors shouldn’t be that important. Let’s not forget that Foles has been a backup for a long time now. Was that not for a good reason? Also playing at Jacksonville shouldn’t worry anyone on K.C.’s side in the slightest. No one ever says it’s tough to go into Jax and pull out a win.

Fournette will test the Chiefs run defense, to be sure, and the Jags defense will be one of the single biggest hurdles that Andy Reid and company will face in all 16 games this season. But even the casual fan should know the Jags are likely tougher than last year’s debacle plagued by inconsistency at QB and myriad injuries.

Are “sharps” onto something? Will this game be a lot closer than people think? Can the Jags even win it? Or will the Chiefs come out and make a statement in the opening game of the year.