The Chiefs’ have made a proposal to amend long-standing overtime rules, which leaves some pundits crying “sour grapes.”
I don’t need to remind Kansas City Chiefs fans how this season ultimately ended. Losing hurts bad enough, but to lose the way the team did was even worse. Chiefs’ fans kept hoping the defense could hold up in a dire situation if they had to, even though nothing during the season had shown they could.
Alas, it was not to be. The Chiefs lost the coin toss and the ball heading into overtime. In a matter of minutes, a season that had left us all dreaming of greatness had come to an end. But, was it actually fair how it ended? Even more, could the NFL benefit from changing its overtime rules?
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In recent days, Chiefs owner Clark Hunt has put forward a proposal to NFL owners that would give both teams a chance at an offensive possession in overtime. It’s understandable why some national pundits have derided the proposal as “sour grapes.” But if the league is honest, there is significant merit to a rule change.
THE ODDS
The most important item to look at when deciding on new rules is how the old rule impacts the statistical odds of winning a game and whether a new rule could rectify that. As such, we’ll look at the percentage of teams who ultimately win the game after winning the coin toss and electing to receive.
Looking at all games since the rule change in 2011, it is surprisingly a small margin. The team that wins the coin toss and elects to receive has a slight advantage, winning the contest 52.7% of the time.
If we go a step further and only look at overtime in the playoffs, however, it shows a larger difference. Since the rule change, five of eight overtime games have been won on the first drive. While this is a small sample size, the advantage is much greater at 62.5%.
Here’s the thing, in professional sports everything is won and lost on infinitely small margins. Even more, the impetus for the Chiefs’ proposal stems from their recent playoff loss. In this case, you’re talking about the best players, on the best teams, in the best league in the world playing for a championship. Any advantage, however small it may seem, can end up making the difference.
Simply put, football is a game of inches and every single inch matters. This alone should be enough to change the rule, but there’s more.
THE RULES
The NFL rules have changed at a rapid pace over the last few years. I remember as a kid, players grabbing and shoving off the line for what seemed like ten yards. I remember players getting blown up going across the middle of the field and no penalties being called.
Even as late as the Seahawks’ run, with the Legion of Boom, defensive players were given significant latitude to disrupt offensive players. Nobody really complained about this. It seemed like offense and defense both had a fair, albeit physical, shot at the ball. But, the NFL began to emphasize scoring and player safety over everything else.
The game, at least from the defensive players’ standpoint, has become much more difficult. Defensive players can barely touch an offensive player anymore without a penalty. It’s actually starting to get ridiculous. Here’s a perfect example.
These rules obviously favor the offense, which obviously favors the team that wins the toss in overtime. Considering this, it might be time to consider a change that allows both teams to play offense and defense in an overtime, at least in the playoffs.
THE FANS
Frankly, to act like this is simply “sour grapes” coming off a loss is disingenuous. Fans have been complaining about the overtime rules for years now. Nobody actually believes the overtime rules are fair. Even if the odds weren’t actually in favor of the team winning the toss, it sure seems like the current rules leave the game in the hands of a coin toss.
Plus, in a league that wants to see more scoring why wouldn’t you want to give offenses more opportunity to possess the ball. Especially in the playoffs. Unless you are a Patriots’ fan, you wanted to see at least one more possession with Patrick Mahomes at the helm last season. Everyone was left wanting.
It’s time to change the overtime rules. Nobody really likes them, unless their team happens to be on the other side of a major win where the opposing team’s offense doesn’t see the field in overtime.