What would trading Justin Houston mean for the Kansas City Chiefs?

It appears that the Kansas City Chiefs are looking to trade linebacker Justin Houston. What would trading him mean for the team?

It appears that Justin Houston’s days with the Kansas City Chiefs are numbered because, according to Ian Rapoport, he is on the trading block.

The veteran linebacker was the Chiefs third-round pick back in the 2011 NFL Draft, and the four-time Pro Bowler is fourth on the franchise’s all time sack list with 78.5 (ninth among active players).

Trading Houston would certainly have an impact on the team, but what kind exactly? First, let’s look at the details.

Contract details

Justin Houston currently has two more years left on his contract and is designated to become an unrestricted free agent in 2021. This year, in 2019, his contract brings a cap hit of $21.1 million. In 2020, his contract brings a cap hit of $19 million.

However, his contract has a potential out option this year, which means the Chiefs can trade or release him before June 1st and only face a cap hit of $7.1 million. This means that trading Justin Houston will save the Chiefs $14 million in cap space this year as well as $19 million in cap space next year.

They could also trade or release Houston after June 1st and only face a cap hit of $5.6 million this year and a cap hit of $1.5 million next year. This would save $15.5 million in cap space this year and $17.5 million in cap space next year.

A potential workaround would be for the Chiefs to restructure Houston’s contract, but he has already indicated that he will not take a restructure unless he is guaranteed more money. Since the Chiefs are likely to franchise tag Dee Ford, it is no surprise that the Chiefs are shopping Houston.

On the field impact

Houston is coming off a season where he started 12 games and racked up 9 sacks. Losing him would certainly impact the Chiefs’ pass rush; however, with the Chiefs switching to a 4-3 defensive scheme under Steve Spagnuolo, Houston wouldn’t be a great fit anyways.

More than statistical production, the Chiefs would be losing a leader on the field if they do decide to trade Houston. Houston is an established veteran, coming off his eighth year as a member of the Chiefs. Losing someone who’s been on the team for so long will certainly impact the team’s mentality.

With young pass rushers such as Breeland Speaks and Dorian O’Daniel, having a guy like Justin Houston around to lead is essential. However, the Chiefs have Dee Ford coming off his fifth season who can step up and fill Houston’s role. Chris Jones is also coming off his third season, a disruptor in the middle of the defensive interior.

While there would be a hole in team mentality without Houston, the Chiefs have guys who can easily step up and fill it. Add a healthy Eric Berry into the mix, and the Chiefs defense would easily manage without Houston.

Potential trade packages

With multiple teams interested in Houston, there’s potential for a bidding war that would bring Houston’s value up to perhaps even a 2nd round pick. However, a more realistic price for Houston would be a mid-round draft pick based on his age and large contract.

One team that would be a good fit for Houston would be the Green Bay Packers. The Packers already have a connection to Justin Houston and the Chiefs with former Chiefs outside linebackers coach Mike Smith, who now fulfills the same role for the Packers.

On top of this connection, the Packers are in the NFC and have ample cap space. With two first-round picks, the Packers might be willing to offer their 2nd round, 44th overall pick in a bidding war, but a more realistic offer would involve a 3rd round, 75th overall or one of their 4th round, 114th or 118th overall picks.

Another team that could be interested in Houston is also in the NFC. The San Francisco 49ers need a pass rusher, and Houston could fill this need. Because of their need for a pass rusher, it wouldn’t be out of the equation for the 49ers to willingly offer their 3rd round, 67th overall pick for Houston.

If the Chiefs want a player out of a trade with Justin Houston, they will most likely have to include one of their draft picks in trade negotiations. Perhaps they are willing to do this, but the ideal situation would be keeping all their picks and adding a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick.

Potential replacements

If the Chiefs do decide to trade Justin Houston, they will be looking towards free agency and the NFL draft for a replacement. Because of the switch to a 4-3 defensive scheme, the Chiefs do not necessarily need to replace Houston with another outside linebacker. They have Dee Ford, Dorian O’Daniel, and Anthony Hitchens to work with and figure out who can play as a strongside and weakside linebacker.

First looking to free agency at an outside linebacker, the Chiefs could flip Justin Houston’s big cap hit to take a big cap hit with another player likely to hit free agency: Anthony Barr. If the Vikings don’t franchise tag Barr, he would be a great fit for the Chiefs to pursue. He’s coming off a 13 game season where he racked up a career-low 55 tackles, but he’s consistently totaled about 70 tackles per season.

Barr has also been selected to the Pro Bowl four out of the five seasons he has been in the NFL, including the last four seasons in a row. If the Chiefs move on from Houston, signing Anthony Barr would be a massive improvement.

Another replacement option could be from the NFL draft: Devin Bush, an inside linebacker from Michigan. Bush, an inside linebacker, would not fill Houston’s outside linebacker role, but the Chiefs could fill that role with someone already on the roster. Bush would bring much needed tackling to the Chiefs, as he tallied 172 total tackles in his three seasons with Michigan.

Also, with NFL coaching, he could fit well into Steve Spagnuolo’s 4-3 defensive scheme as a much needed middle linebacker. Ultimately, if the Chiefs think they can do without another outside linebacker like Houston, Bush would be an excellent pick as a replacement linebacker.