The Kansas City Chiefs need a laser-like offseason focus on their run defense if they’re going to create a system that matches their offensive firepower.
After some time to reflect on the Kansas City Chiefs heartbreaking loss to the New England Patriots on Sunday night, a few thoughts have stuck with me as the Chiefs enter the offseason.
Various takes, opinions, and commentary abound after such an important game, which run the gamut from incredibly insightful to completely reactionary. There are interesting discussions surrounding the play of the offensive line and running game. But for me, the overriding thought was that the run defense, above all else, must be the major focus for offseason improvement.
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You’ve all heard to no end that the entire defense struggled by just about every metric outside of sacks all season long. But Sunday night gave a blueprint many teams will inevitably try to copy. Run straight at the Chiefs, control the clock, and limit the total number of times Mahomes and company possess the ball—not a novel tactic against great quarterbacks. The Chiefs will certainly look at improving the entire defense this offseason with some sizable cap space and four draft picks in the top 100. The dismissal of Bob Sutton shows the organization’s commitment to change on the defensive side of the ball. However, the Chiefs need to realize the offensive juggernaut they have and construct a defense that best compliments it.
The next defensive coordinator, as well as personnel moves, should be focused on stopping the run, even if it risks exposing the secondary to large downfield plays. This runs counter to the NFL’s trend towards heavy passing, and that logically defenses should be constructed to defend the pass, but it fits what the Chiefs need.
First, few teams can go toe-to-toe offensively with the Chiefs, so a defense that preserves the clock and increases the number of possessions, is essential. More possessions invariably favor the Chiefs, so a defensive unit that by personnel and scheme can dictate more passing is desired. However, if teams can run off 7-minute drives and shorten the game, the great offensive advantage diminishes.
Obviously, this strategy becomes more fraught when facing top-level quarterbacks, but so does just about every defensive strategy in the NFL (short of having an elite level defense). In contrast, ‘bend but don’t break’ is an effective defensive strategy, but it’s simply not what compliments this Chiefs team that could use that time to add points at a historic clip.
Second, there are practical limitations to what the Chiefs can do to fix a defense that struggled in many areas, statistically. The defense is unlikely to become a top-5 unit in one off-season. There are limited resources to allocate, and an allocation focused on the run defense has the added benefit of complimenting the offense greatly. A defense that could be highly-effective and balanced is ideal, but not necessarily reasonable to expect by the time the 2019 season kicks off. While the passing defense should certainly improve under new coaching, seeking out a defensive coordinator and personnel with particular strength against the run is important.
The Chiefs offensive production is rare, and conventional football wisdom is not always applicable. The defense should be constructed to play into that. This is not to argue that points should be surrendered quickly rather than drawing it out. It’s only to say that the risk of giving up quick scores should be tolerated in a concerted effort to increase the total number of possessions by committing to stopping the run, assuming the defense does not drastically improve upon its 2018 statistical performance. It is simple as amplifying the team’s greatest strengths.