Why the Kansas City Chiefs will beat the New England Patriots

All in all, the New England Patriots have had an average defense this season. They finished the year allowing 359.1 yards per game (21st in the NFL) and 20.3 points (7th in the NFL). However, those numbers do take a substantial jump up on the road where they averaged 398.9 yards and 24 points per game. Now keep in mind that the Chiefs were able to put up 40 points and 446 yards on the Patriots in Foxboro and it certainly seems reasonable to think that the Chiefs will be able to put up some points and yards on New England this weekend in Arrowhead.

That happens to be exactly what happened in the Patriots other loses this season. In their five losses, they allowed 413.4 yards and 28.4 points per game. Now, if you took the yards and points allowed in KC’s loses it would look even worse but I do think it’s worth pointing out that the key to beating New England wasn’t a low scoring defensive game it was to run up points on them and that plays right into the Chiefs strengths.

It is also worth noting that in their five losses, the Patriots allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 13 touchdowns and just four interceptions compared to their eleven regular season wins where they allowed 16 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. So the quarterbacks that beat the Patriots averaged 2.6 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions and the quarterbacks that lost to the Patriots averaged 1.5 touchdowns and 1.3 interceptions. Which one more closely resembles a Patrick Mahomes stat line?

Finally, the other factor in the Patriots losses was the pass rush that opposing teams were able to get on Tom Brady. Much like Andrew Luck with the Colts, Brady is one of the least sacked quarterbacks in the NFL. On the season he was only sacked 21 times. However, in their five losses, Brady was sacked a total of ten times. That’s almost half of the sacks that New England allowed all season in just those five games.

This isn’t a coincidence. Getting pressure on Brady is one of the best ways to throw the Patriots offense off balance. Thankfully for Chiefs fans, Kansas City was tied for the league lead in sacks this season and showed last week that, despite the great protection numbers Luck had all season, the Chiefs were still able to get to him totaling three sacks and many more pressures.

So to sum things up, the New England Patriots lost this season when they went on the road and their opponents were able to both rack up some points and get pressure on the quarterback. That’s three big check marks in Kansas City’s favor and this isn’t even taking into account the all-around improved defensive play that the Chiefs had against Indianapolis. If the defense can play that well again then this team is almost unbeatable.

Now, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots should never be written off or counted out. They proved this past weekend that they are still alive and dangerous. However, I believe that things will be a little different this week when they have to leave the comfortable confines of Foxboro and travel to the very hostile environment of Arrowhead Stadium. Their track record on the road this season backs that up.

Kansas City fans may be able to breathe easy now that many of the demons of playoff failures past have been vanquished, but I really hope they show up in force on Sunday just as loud, just as hostile, and just as passionate because the ultimate goal of this season has not been reached yet. There are very good reasons to believe that the Kansas City Chiefs can beat the New England Patriots on Sunday. Which means there are very good reasons for fans to finally believe that we may just get to see our beloved Kansas City Chiefs make the Super Bowl.