Is Arrowhead Stadium an actual advantage for the Kansas City Chiefs?

The Chiefs have achieved the top seed in the AFC for the first time since 1997. Is Arrowhead Stadium actually an advantage for K.C.?

Over the last week or more, the question of home-field advantage has come into view. For the first time in over two decades, the Kansas City Chiefs have secured their conference’s top seed, meaning the road to the Super Bowl for the AFC runs through Arrowhead Stadium. Some fans are understandably cautious. Others are downright hopeless.

The fact is, the Chiefs’ recent home field experiences in the playoffs fall somewhere on a spectrum from poor to terrible. There’s the “no punt game” in the 2003 divisional round where the Chiefs defense couldn’t stop the Colts even one time, eventually losing by a score. There’s the most recent, and probably most nauseating, loss to the Titans where the Chiefs held and lost a 21-3 lead.

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To add fuel to the fire, the Chiefs organization as a whole hasn’t won a home playoff game since January 8, 1994, against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Fans have endured six straight home playoff losses, each one seeming to drain every last piece of hope the fan base has left.

With all this in mind and the annoying loss to the Chargers at home just a few weeks ago, an important question must be asked: is having home field actually an advantage to this Chiefs’ team? We’ll take a look at this subjectively as well as objectively as we glance at the underlying stats that show whether the team fared better at home or on the road.

THE SUBJECTIVE VIEW

I wholeheartedly understand Chiefs’ fans anxiety leading up to the divisional round. I have been a diehard Chiefs’ fan for nearly two decades and until recently there has been more to be upset about than happy about. I was five years old when Joe Montana last wore the red and yellow, so for all intents and purposes, I have never seen my favorite team progress past the divisional round.

With that said, this year’s Chiefs’ team logically has no ties to past Chiefs’ teams. It might sound obvious, but the Kansas City Chiefs’ organization is not cursed. This is a different team with a different coach in a different league than all the other Chiefs’ teams before it.

Most importantly, we now have a quarterback that can go out and win these types of games. I have a lot of respect for past Chiefs’ quarterbacks, but Patrick Mahomes is the first great quarterback in his prime that the organization has had since Len Dawson. He makes a huge difference every time he steps on the gridiron.

With all this in mind, of course, you’d rather play at home than on the road, but an idea doesn’t mean a lot without evaluating it based on measurable criteria. Numbers don’t lie, so what do the numbers say about the Chiefs’ chances at home versus on the road?

THE OBJECTIVE VIEW

The numbers are fairly definitive. The most important stat for defenses is points allowed per game. In this case, the Chiefs are significantly better at home. In their eight home games, they have allowed an average of 18 points per game. This is actually a very respectable number in today’s NFL. Unfortunately, the story is drastically different on the road.

In eight road games, the Chiefs are surrendering a whopping 35 points per game. Let that sink in for a moment. This defense is giving up almost twice as many points on the road as they are at home. Now, a major difference is that the Chiefs played two playoff teams at home and four playoff teams on the road. Regardless, this number is still significant. In this case, the home field is a major factor.

Another extremely important statistic is the number of turnovers a defense forces for its offense. A turnover is not only an extra opportunity for your offense to score but a major swing in momentum that can boost the play of both the offense and the defense. Here again, the difference between home and the road is significant.

In their eight home games, the defense is forcing 2.43 turnovers per game. In comparison, in their eight road games, they are only forcing 1.67 per game. This is nearly a turnover per game. One additional turnover forced can easily be the difference between winning and losing, especially in the playoffs. Like points allowed, home field is a major factor in turnovers forced.

Yards allowed can show the ability for a defense to either get a stop in short yardage situations or give up a crucial play. For instance, if a team gives up a significant number of yards it’s less likely they’ll come up with a stop in short yardage situations.

In their eight home games, the Chiefs’ defense is surrendering 355 yards per game. Specifically, they are giving up 221 yards through the air and 133 yards on the ground. In comparison, in their eight road games, they are surrendering 456 yards per game. Specifically, they are giving up 325 yards through the air and 130 yards on the ground.

There is an extremely important distinction here. Competition aside, the Chiefs’ defense is significantly better against the pass at home than they are on the road. Why is this so crucial? Because this is more and more a passing league.

What’s more, five of the six quarterbacks the Chiefs could end up facing are prolific passers. Any edge the Chiefs can get against these teams could be the difference between losing their first game or making it to the Super Bowl. As with each of the other factors, home field is a major advantage.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

This Chiefs team, like every other one before it, is unique in and of itself. For better or for worse, the difference between this team winning and losing depends on how they execute going forward. Past experiences have no bearing on these playoffs, even the bad experiences at home.

What’s more, home field advantage absolutely matters. The Chiefs’ Achilles heel this year has been its defense, without question. Luckily, this defense is actually somewhat serviceable at home. They are significantly better in points allowed, turnovers forced, and yards allowed. Even though the offense scores slightly less at home, almost six points less to be exact, the defense more than compensates for this difference.

The Chiefs' scoring efficiency is amazing. dark. Next

This is an exciting time to be a Chiefs’ fan. Our team, led by MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes and coach of the year candidate Andy Reid has home-field advantage for the first time since 1997. This team has a chance to usher in the golden age in Chiefs’ Kingdom.

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