Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees dominate the NFL's MVP race

Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees are considered the two top frontrunners for NFL MVP, but who deserves the award more? Let’s break it down.

The national pundits seem to change their minds every single week regarding who they believe is the MVP of the National Football League. One week they are praising a candidate for changing the way their respective position is played or marveling at the precision and efficiency from a statistical perspective. The next, they are characterizing each mistake or loss as a death blow to their candidacy.

In typical fashion, there seems to be no true framework with which the talking heads are ranking each potential MVP candidate. One would think that a framework applied over an entire season would be the most accurate way to determine the most valuable player in the league. Yet, as the season continues to wind down, it seems that the MVP race is up for grabs every single game.

With this in mind, I think it would be beneficial to create an actual framework to determine who should technically win the award, at least through 14 games. Given that this year’s odds favor two quarterbacks and that nine of the last 10 MVPs have been quarterbacks, I will apply this framework specifically to Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees.

For this evaluation, I will look at statistics, strength of schedule, and their offensive and defensive counterparts. Let’s get started.

The Statistics

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To begin with, we’ll examine each player’s overall stats. Between the two quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes leads in all major categories except interceptions and completion percentage. His official stat line reads 45 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 4,563 passing yards, 67.1% completion rate, and 8.8 yards per attempt. Relatively speaking, he is having one of the most dominantly productive seasons in recent memory.

In comparison, while Brees is undoubtedly having an impressive season, his actual production is slightly less imposing. His official stat line reads 31 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 3,666 passing yards, 74.9% completion rate, and 8.1 yards per attempt. In all fairness, the numbers that stick out most are his interceptions and completion percentage.

Similarly to Mahomes’ overall production being on par with some of the greatest seasons in recent memory, Brees overall efficiency is on the same level. It’s unique that we have two quarterbacks at such a high level competing for an award in seemingly different ways.

From a production standpoint, it seems Mahomes has the edge. But, given these statistics, you could easily make an argument for either player. Some would say production trumps efficiency, whereas others would say efficiency trumps production. This is why we must delve deeper and consider other factors in relation to statistics, like the player’s strength of schedule.

The Schedule

For this factor, we’ll focus on each players’ numbers in the context of the defenses on their schedule. To create the right context, we’ll consider teams played based on defensive yards allowed per game, defensive points allowed per game and the defensive efficiency rating provided by football outsiders.

For these numbers, all are averaged and rounded to the nearest integer. Mahomes has, on average, played against the 16th ranked defense in points allowed, the 17th ranked defense in yards allowed, and the 14th ranked defense in terms of efficiency. In comparison, Brees has, on average, played against the 20th ranked defense in points allowed, the 20th ranked defense in yards allowed, and the 20th ranked defense in terms of efficiency.

If Mahomes’ better production didn’t make you strongly consider him for the MVP, evaluating it in the context of the defenses he’s played should. Without question, Mahomes has played tougher defenses during his 2018 campaign. Especially if you are inclined to trust DVOA over other metrics, Mahomes has essentially been playing in a league above Bress through 14 games.

But, we aren’t finished evaluating. For a player to truly be the “Most Valuable Player,” it must be true that his team is more reliant on him than any other player in the league.

Offensive Counterparts

For the next factor, we’ll focus on each quarterback’s production based on how important it is relative to their other overall offense. For example, if a quarterback’s offensive weapons are below average it would be more important for him to produce than for a quarterback who’s offensive weapons are above average.

For this measure, we will look at the Chiefs’ skill positions versus the Saints‘ skill positions, and each quarterback’s offensive line protection.

From the standpoint of offensive weapons, Mahomes’ skill positions are comprised of Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and for most of the season, Kareem Hunt. In comparison, Brees’ skill positions are comprised of Benjamin Watson, Michael Thomas, Tre’Quan Smith, and Alvin Kamara.

From a subjective standpoint, Mahomes has a slight edge here. His major advantage is that Kelce is a far more versatile and threatening tight end than Watson. But, Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt are pretty comparable from a production standpoint. Hunt was a slightly better runner, but Kamara was and is a slightly better receiver.

Mahomes’ wide receivers are slightly better as well, but not by much. Hill and Watkins have produced a combined 118 catches for 1,823 yards. Thomas and Smith have produced a combined 133 catches for 1,653 yards. I’ll admit, if I had to pick one receiver from either team it would be Tyreek Hill. But, Michael Thomas is a force in his own right.

The last thing to consider here is the protection given by the offensive line or the amount of pressure each quarterback faces per drop back. This number includes sacks, hits, and hurries. This is an important factor because it illustrates, in part, how much a quarterback must create on his own.

The latest numbers show Mahomes has been the third most pressured quarterback with a pressure rate of 36.2%. In comparison, Brees has been the fifth least pressured quarterback with a pressure rate of 19.3%.

This is a huge difference. Without Mahomes unique ability to avoid pressure, this offense would grind to a halt. There are very few quarterbacks who have displayed this kind of ability, and Drew Brees is not one of them. For Mahomes to produce as he has under that type of pressure is simply amazing, especially for a second-year player.

While Mahomes has better weapons, Brees has a decidedly cleaner pocket to throw out of. Mahomes must create more to balance out the pressure. Overall, this point the edge in playmaking ability goes to Mahomes.

Now that we’ve reviewed the offensive counterparts, let’s take a look at each quarterback’s defense.

Defensive Counterparts

For this factor, we’ll focus on each quarterback’s production based on how important it is relative to their defense. For example, if a quarterback’s defense is below average it would be more important for him to produce than for a quarterback with an above average defense. To quantify this, we will look objectively at the Chiefs’ defense versus the Saints’ defense.

The Chiefs’ defense to this point in the season ranks 28th in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed and 27th in defensive efficiency. In comparison, the Saints’ defense to this point ranks 7th in points allowed, 11th in yards allowed, and 8th in defensive efficiency.

These numbers probably show the largest difference in each quarterback’s importance to their respective team. It’s obvious to state that the Saints would likely not have won 12 of 14 games this season without Drew Brees. But, it’s even more obvious that removing Mahomes from the Chiefs’ equation this season would have a far more significant impact than removing Brees.

Given all these factors, a few things are clear. Mahomes has better production against better competition. He’s also clearly needed to create and produce more looking at the Chiefs as a whole this season. The more context provided, the more incredible his performance becomes.

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The is the true definition of the most valuable player. A player who, against the odds, carries their team to incredible heights. This is what Patrick Mahomes has done this season. He is, without question, the Chiefs’ and the NFL’s Most Valuable Player.

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Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees dominate the NFL’s MVP race

By Jordan Mannix | Dec 20, 2018