Despite their turnaround since Lamar Jackson took over, NFL experts have the Baltimore Ravens falling to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.
The Kansas City Chiefs got back in the win column last week against the Oakland Raiders, and return home for a matchup against the Baltimore Ravens that presents some unique challenges. They’re still the heavy favorites, and a Ravens win would be a major upset—perhaps a shocker. But there are aspects of the Ravens’ makeup that could convince one to predict such an upset.
With rookie Lamar Jackson under center, the Ravens are committed to running the ball. That’s basically their entire game plan. They run it with running backs. They run it with their fullback. They run it with their quarterback. The Chiefs defense has more than one weakness, but the most glaring issue is the team’s run defense. Fortunately, the Chiefs have regularly been far enough ahead within the first few minutes of games that they’ve forced their opponents into passing more often a whole lot earlier than they’d probably hoped.
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But the Ravens’ commitment to the run with Jackson at QB could, in theory, present problems for the Chiefs. If Baltimore is able to control the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes and co. off the field, they’ll manage to keep the game close into the 4th quarter. If Kansas City jumps to an early 10 or 14 point lead, Baltimore falling into the trap of getting pass-happy early would prove disastrous for the Ravens.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have one of the top defenses in the league. They are just as much a test for Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense as Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense is a test for the Ravens’ defense. That’s why the idea of a run-heavy, ball control offense could work for Baltimore—they have the defense to back it up.
But it’s still only enough to sway very few experts across sports media. Here’s a look at what some NFL experts are predicting in Week 14.
ESPN:
All Chiefs.
CBS:
Will Brinson and (surprise!) Jason La Canfora are the only two taking a Ravens upset.
FiveThirtyEight has the Chiefs with a very strong 71% win probability. For the season, they still sit at an 18% Super Bowl win probability, which is good for 3rd in the league, but 1st in the AFC.
These last four games couldn’t be more important for the Chiefs. They couldn’t get it done against the New England Patriots early in the season, and it could come back to bite them in the form of dropping to the 2nd seed in the playoffs if they don’t win out.
The Chiefs will likely be favorites the rest of the way, but that doesn’t mean the next three weeks, in particular, won’t be tough. We’re reaching the point of the season where everyone is waiting for the Chiefs to ruin everything for themselves. For once, it’s time for them to take what they already have instead of giving it away.