Through the half: Comparing the 2018 Chiefs to the 2004 Eagles

Given the growing Super Bowl aspirations, how does this team stack up after eight games with Andy Reid’s 2004 Eagles’ team?

Andy Reid is a great coach. He’s coached for nearly two decades, taking two franchises living in mediocrity and turning them into consistent winners. Even so, he’s never won the coveted Lombardi trophy.

But, this year’s Kansas City Chiefs’ team is likely his best shot at a championship in over a decade. Given the growing expectations, it might be an interesting thought experiment to compare this potential Super Bowl contender with the team that brought Reid closest to gridiron glory.

Specifically, through half the season how do the 2018 Chiefs measure up against the 2004 Philadelphia Eagles? Let’s compare these teams based on offensive production, defensive production, and their strength of schedule.

Offensive Production

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From an offensive standpoint, there are few teams in the NFL that compare to the tear the Chiefs are on. Through the first eight games, they ranked number one in points per game at a crushing clip of 33.8 per game and ranked number three in yards with 425.2 per game. To put this in context, only the 2007 Patriots and the 2013 Broncos averaged more points per game than this Chiefs’ team.

Even last year’s Chiefs’ offense looks paltry in comparison, which averaged 24.1 points and 372.5 total yards per game. Considering that the 2017 Chiefs were regarded as one of the best offenses in the league, it further emphasizes just how dominant the current Chiefs’ offense really is.

Fans should feel even more positive when comparing this Chiefs’ offense to the 2004 Eagles’ offense through eight games. The Chiefs’ average of 33.8 points per game looks even more imposing next to the Eagles’ eight-game average of 22.9 points per game. Contextually, this Chiefs’ offense has scored nearly 150% the amount the 2004 Eagles did through eight games.

A couple more interesting offensive stats of note. During this stretch, the Chiefs’ max offensive point total was 42 on the road against a perennial playoff team in the Pittsburgh Steelers. In comparison, the Eagles’ max offensive point total was 34 on the road against a Cleveland Browns team that ended the season 4-12. Additionally, the Chiefs’ minimum offensive point total was 27 points, in a close contest on the road against the Denver Broncos. In comparison, the Eagles’ minimum offensive point total was 3 points, in a 27-3 beatdown by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Taking these factors into account, it’s clear that the 2018 Chiefs’ offense is superior to the 2004 Eagles offense in nearly every way. On that note, let’s take a look at the 2018 Chiefs’ defense versus the 2004 Eagles’ defense.

Defensive Production

In stark contrast to the success of the offense, the Chiefs’ defense is one of the worst in the current league and likely one of the worst in recent memory. Simply put, this is not a good defense. In most ways, it’s a very bad defense.

What’s more, it’s clear at least from the statistics that this year’s Chiefs’ defense isn’t in the same league as the 2004 Eagles’ defense. Arguably and surprisingly, the 2004 Eagles’ team was more of a defensive force than an offensive force. They were ranked second in points allowed and 10th in total yards allowed. In contrast, the first eight games the Chiefs ranked 21st in points allowed and 31st in total yards allowed.

This is understandably where most fans’ concern lies with this team. It’s not irrelevant to point out that the 2004 Eagles were a far more balanced team than this year’s Chiefs’ team.

The one positive to take away from these numbers is that the Chiefs’ defense has in fact been trending upward. They put together more solid performances than bad performances in the second quarter of the season. If that’s not positive enough, Justin Houston, Eric Berry, and Daniel Sorenson will likely all be back on the field at some point this season.

While it’s safe to say the defense will improve, there is really no argument here. The 2004 Eagles were a far more statistically dominant defense than this year’s Chiefs’ defense. Now that we’ve looked at production, let’s take a look at who’s schedule was more difficult.

Strength of Schedule

Statistics mean virtually nothing unless taken in the right context. It’s clear the 2018 Chiefs have a superior offense and the 2004 Eagles have a superior defense. But, who had the superior schedule?

For this factor, I’ll take a look at two different viewpoints. The first will be simply looking at each team’s opponents’ win-loss record after eight games. This will be the more objective viewpoint. For the second, I’ll assume who will make the playoffs from the Chiefs’ schedule and compare that to the number of playoff teams on the Eagles’ schedule through the first half. This will be more subjective but is an important factor when considering whose schedule was truly more difficult.

Looking at both the Chiefs’ and Eagles’ opponents’ records through eight games, the Eagles have a slight edge. Their opponents’ record was over .500 at 33-31-0. In comparison, the Chiefs’ opponents’ record through eight games is right at .500 at 32-31-1. All this being said, the difference in opponents’ records is less than two percent. But, I still give the edge here to the 2004 Eagles.

Looking at the total number of playoff teams on each eight-game schedule, the Chiefs have a decent advantage here. Again, this is very subjective. But, I think it’s reasonable to expect the Chargers, Steelers, Patriots, and Bengals to all make the playoffs.

Comparing this to the Eagles’ first-half schedule, in which only two teams ended up making the playoffs, the Chiefs have a decent edge here. I also think it’s important to note that the Eagles only loss at the half was a complete beat down by the Steelers, whereas the Chiefs only loss was on a last-second field goal against the Patriots in Foxborough. I understand that some people will disagree with this second line of reasoning, and that’s fair. But, I still think the Chiefs have a decent edge when it comes to playoff teams played.

Overview

Now that we’ve covered offensive production, defensive production, and strength of schedule, what does this all actually mean?

The Chiefs clearly have the better offense, and the Eagles clearly have the better defense. Interestingly, however, the Chiefs are actually beating teams by more than the Eagles did. Through the first half, the Chiefs’ average margin of victory was 10.6 points per game compared to only 7.2 points per game for the Eagles. Given their opponents’ record is virtually identical, and the Chiefs have likely played more playoff teams, I think the ultimate edge for Reid’s best team has to go to the 2018 Chiefs.

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Most Chiefs’ fans will take this with a grain of salt and they should. It’s hard to get too enthused about a Chiefs’ team until they win more than one playoff game under Andy Reid. However, it’s clear this is at least one of the best teams Reid has ever coached. It’s easy to see why this team might carry him to gridiron glory.

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