49ers vs. Chiefs: Sizing up San Francisco with an expert

Let’s prepare for the Chiefs Week 3 matchup by chatting with San Francisco 49ers expert Peter Panacy about Jimmy Garoppolo and much more.

As the Kansas City Chiefs prepare to host their first opponent at Arrowhead Stadium for the 2018 season, the San Francisco 49ers are hoping to burst a bubble that’s grown to an enormous size.

Fans all around the NFL are paying attention to what’s happening in Kansas City—specifically the NFL’s most potent offense and how teams might try to stop them. The L.A. Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers have already fallen on the road against Patrick Mahomes and company and now the Niners are coming into town hoping to create their own momentum.

To prepare for Sunday’s game, we asked Niners expert Peter Panacy of Niners Noise to tell us about the state of the team, including whether or not Jimmy Garoppolo.

Last year ended magically after the Jimmy G trade. How much of that is still in the air?

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Last year is just that, last year. 2017 was pretty special and it set the expectation level for this season pretty high. That said, the 49ers are no longer flying under the radar and teams are game planning for Jimmy Garoppolo and Co. with a much deeper book on his abilities and shortcomings. It’s going to be up to Garoppolo and head coach Kyle Shanahan to adjust, which is the story for any athlete, coach or team in any sport.

We’ve seen some shortcomings with Jimmy G early this season. He was a bit overaggressive in San Francisco’s Week 1 loss versus the Minnesota Vikings and, arguably, a bit too conservative in Week 2 versus the Detroit Lions. Hence the six sacks he took, and almost all of them could be pinned on him holding onto the ball for far too long within the pocket.

Still, the pure skill set Garoppolo has displayed is enough to bank on him being far better in coming weeks, showing the kind of prowess he displayed when he first started and what’s going to be expected of him the rest of the season.

What are your expectations personally for the Niners by season’s end?

Competing for the playoffs would be nice, although the NFC is stacked right now. A 10-6 finish would be a massive improvement for this squad, although I’m not even sure that earns a postseason berth. And 9-7 might be a more realistic record for San Francisco anyway.

The 49ers still have plenty of holes and upgrade needs on both sides of the ball. It’s not like they’re a player or two away. Week 2 was a prime example. The Niners nearly coughed up a 17-point fourth-quarter lead at home, scraping by with a narrow three-point win over the Lions. On a positive side of the argument, though, the 49ers were losing games by three points, or less, this time last year. Now they are able to win those games.

So that’s a page turned, one might assume.

Kyle Shanahan came to town hyped as one of the league’s most brilliant offensive minds. How are you seeing that take root in San Fran? Good as advertised?

Absolutely. When Shanahan’s offense is clicking, it’s nearly impossible to stop. But it’s also highly complex, which is one of the reasons why Garoppolo and the offense might take time to fully gel this season.

Shanahan’s offense is predicated on getting guys open, boasting receivers with exceptional speed and route-running abilities. Paired with a quarterback who can hit targets on short and intermediate routes, it’s almost the truest sense of a West Coast offense running at its peak.

Still, there are times where Shanahan can leave us scratching our heads a bit. Case in point, he called for a trick play in the fourth quarter versus Detroit when the Niners were still up big. It was nearly a disaster and could have resulted in a turnover. On top of that, it was weird to see the 49ers snapping the ball with 15 seconds, or so, left on the play clock. Not how one goes about protecting a lead late.

Overall, however, the 49ers have their guy at the helm and shouldn’t have any concerns about what Shanahan will make of the offense in time.

What are the Niners doing really well two games into this season?

Well, there have been ups and downs for almost every unit over these two games. Garoppolo has shown some excellent playmaking abilities, paired with some bad mistakes. The running game was all but absent in Week 1, only to give way to Matt Breida having a massive game against the Lions in Week 2. The offensive line was banged up and bad in Week 1, better in run blocking in Week 2. And San Francisco’s wide receivers haven’t been a major factor early this season.

Defensively, DeForest Buckner has been a wrecking ball up front, already surpassing his 2017 sack totals. He could be a Defensive Player of the Year candidate this season. Rookie linebacker Fred Warner has been impressive, and teams aren’t targeting cornerback Richard Sherman—like, at all.

But the rest of the secondary has been suspect, and linebacker depth has been tested, although Reuben Foster returns from his two-game suspension this week. That helps.

What has been the most frustrating part of watching the Niners in 2018?

I’d say the mistakes and consistency. Week 1 was a prime example. The 49ers could have won that game, which would have been impressive against a Vikings squad many likely peg as NFC representatives in Super Bowl LIII. Penalties, a fumble by Alfred Morris on the 1-yard line, bad red-zone execution and dropped passes thwarted San Francisco’s efforts, though. Good teams figure out how to win games like that when the chances present themselves. Maybe the 49ers aren’t quite that good yet.

There were fewer glaring mistakes in Week 2, and yet the Niners barely managed to hang on and got lucky by the numerous penalties the Lions made.

Any final predictions?

Patrick Mahomes is going to come back to earth, right? At this point, he’s on pace to toss 80 touchdowns this season.

I’d be crazy to assume the 49ers defense can stop Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce, wide receiver Tyreek Hill or even running back Kareem Hunt for four quarters. So the best approach would be to keep them off the field, right? And I haven’t been impressed with K.C.’s defense much this season, meaning I’d expect Shanahan and Co. to go with a ball-control, methodical approach to the game — lots of Breida, paired with short, high-percentage throws to keep the chains moving.

Elongated, sustained drives will be critical for the 49ers and would keep Mahomes and Co. off the field. Easier said than done, however, especially in front of a raucous Chiefs crowd at Arrowhead Stadium. Let’s go with 30-21 Chiefs in this one.

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