Chargers vs. Chiefs Week 1: 3 key matchups to watch

The NFL season is back baby! And so too are my weekly matchup analysis columns you know and love. From here to Super Bowl Sunday lookout for this to pop-up on Friday each week.

This Sunday afternoon we’ll be treated to potentially the best matchup we’ll have all season. The Kansas City Chiefs are heading to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers. Patrick Mahomes II gets his first start as the full-time starter and quarterback of the present. He faces a tough challenge facing a defense that ranked 9th in pass defense by Football Outsiders last season—a defense which features Casey Hayward; the consensus #1 corner in the league in 2017.

But for me, that’s not what this game will end up all being about. In fact, I’d be willing to say that the success for the whole season relies not on the shoulders of Mahomes. But the legs of another second year player.

Lets get to it.

Kareem Hunt vs. Chargers run defense

If it wasn’t exactly obvious who I was just talking about, it’s Kareem “The Dream” Hunt. Mahomes may be the quarterback and leader of the offense, but Hunt could be the true difference maker this season.

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Andy Reid spoke before on expanding his duties on the field. He’s been working on his pass blocking and pass receiving all throughout the offseason. Hunt’s job this season is to be Mahomes’ protector and safety valve. Last year Hunt finished the season with 100+ total yards in 10/16 games played (including a game where he had just one touch).

In his first test of the season Hunt will face last season’s 31st-ranked defense by rushing yards allowed and 32nd in rushing yards per attempt. While the bookend of the Chargers defense is defended by pro-bowlers Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, the interior of the defensive line is not so noteworthy. The aging Brandon Mebane,and 4th year Darius Philon have struggled in run defense ranking 128th and 119th respectively in run stop percentage among interior defensive linemen.

The second level of the defense is a little different though. Linebacker Denzel Perryman ended last season ranked 3rd among all linebackers in the same category. Perryman will be Hunt’s #1 enemy this Sunday, and the top battle to watch in this matchup.

My prediction: 100+ total yards and 2 touchdowns for Kareem Hunt.

Kendall Fuller vs. Keenan Allen

This is slated to be my favorite matchup of week to watch during the game. It’s not secret that former Chiefs corner Marcus Peters seemed to struggle in coverage against Allen in the past. Now it will be Fuller’s job to slow Allen down.

It’s also no secret that Chiefs corners under defensive coordinator Bob Sutton don’t typically follow receivers. However, thanks to Fuller’s versatility he will play outside in base defense, and in the slot in dime/nickel packages. On the other side Allen similarly has position versatility and will play outside in 2 or less receiver packages and in the slot in 3 or more receiver packages.

So whether or not Sutton assigns Fuller to Allen, they’ll likely be paired up quite frequently just based on the way they’re used. And deciding this matchup isn’t easy. Allen was the 2nd best slot receiver by yards per route run in the slot (2.11), and Fuller was the 2nd best slot defender by yards allowed per coverage snap in the slot (0.74).

This matchup on paper looks like a stalemate. Allen is bigger and has shown success for a longer period of time. Fuller is more athletic, and showed a slightly greater level of dominance in his best season. One thing that could also go in Fuller’s favor is Allen’s production is based on Philip Rivers play.

In 5 seasons of Rivers versus Bob Sutton and the Chiefs; Rivers has thrown for 2,535 yards, 12 TDs, and 14 INTs in 10 games. In just his last 3 matchups against the Chiefs, Rivers has thrown for 3 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. He’s had just 2 games where he’s thrown no interceptions, and 4 where he’s thrown no touchdowns. Fair to say the Chiefs have given Rivers a rough time over the years, and this matchup figures to be no different.

My prediction: 4 receptions for 44 yards for Allen, 2 pass blocks and 1 interception for Fuller.

Mahomes vs. Chargers pass defense

Now for the matchup that will likely capture the top headline at the end of the game. How will the passing of the torch from Alex Smith to Mahomes begin? Well as already suggested above, Hunt should play a big role in shouldering the load for Mahomes. If Hunt can catch the attention of the defense that should make things easier for him.

Much of Mahomes’ success will greatly rely on the playmakers around him making plays, and he’s no short of playmakers. Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and new addition Sammy Watkins will be relied upon to ease the transition. Hill ended the season as the No. 1 starting receiver by passing rating when targeted (130.5), Kelce finished 7th among tight ends (110.3), and Watkins 5th among all receivers (122.0).

On the opposite end the Chargers top coverage defenders Casey Hayward allowed a 58.6 QB rating, Trevor Williams a 70.5 rating, and Desmond King II a 100.8 rating. There’s also the wild card of Derwin James who is not currently listed as a starter, but is expected to play a significant number of snaps.

The Chargers have one of the best and deepest cornerback groups in the league, so this will make for quite an interesting matchup against the Chiefs bevy of playmakers. Unfortunately for Mahomes, I’m siding with the Chargers in this matchup.

As previously mentioned, the Chargers one true weakness is the middle of their defensive line. However, outside of that they’re one of the most stacked teams in the league. This game Mahomes will need to prove it to me and the rest of Chiefs Kingdom just what he’s made of.

My prediction: Patrick Mahomes,17/28, 60.7%, 227 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Thanks for reading! I really hope you enjoy this. If you have any suggestions for future matchups or other topics you’d like me to tackle. Hit me up over at dt.sports.now(at)gmail.com or over on twitter @DTSportsNow.

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