The Kansas City Chiefs will be underdogs when they begin the 2018 season on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers this Sunday.
When the Kansas City Chiefs, the defending AFC West champions, take the field on Sunday against an opponent they’ve beat 8 straight times, they’re going to do so as underdogs.
That’s because Las Vegas odds makers have the Los Angeles Chargers as a three-point favorite over the Chiefs with total points over/under of 47.5.
First, a quick crash course for those unfamiliar with the gambling world. If this isn’t you, feel free to skip ahead a couple paragraphs.
The Crash Course
When betting, there’s a “point spread” for each game. This spread is meant to be a number that gets as close to 50% betting on each team as possible. The line isn’t set in stone either. If the bets are skewing to one team as the week progresses the books will adjust the spread in order to get the bets as close to 50/50 as they can before kickoff.
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Once you have a spread you like, then you place a bet. There are many different ways to bet this spread, but for beginners, it’s easier to stick to the most common. Using the Chiefs game this week as an example, you can bet the Chargers or Chiefs to win. If you bet on the Chargers to win they would need to be win by four points or more for you to win. If the Chargers win by three points or less you’d lose. You’d win a Chiefs bet if the Chargers won by three points or less or they win outright.
The total points over/under are just what it sounds like. You can bet on what the total points will be, and it doesn’t matter who wins. For the Chiefs game as an example, if you take the over and the final score is 28 to 24, that would be 52 total points and you’d win the bet.
This Week’s Lines
Now that we got the basics of how the point spread works and while it’s important to gamblers, let’s dive into this week’s game. As much love as the Chargers have been getting all offseason, it’s not a surprise they would start out the year as a favorite at home. Sportsbooks tend to give teams three points just for being a home team, so by making the spread three points, they are saying this game could go either way.
From the gambler’s point of view, the Chargers have a veteran quarterback, a good running back, and a talented wide receiver core on offense. On defense, they sport one of the best pass-rushing tandems in the league and a top-five corner. On paper, the team looks to be solid on both sides of the ball and open the season at home.
The Chiefs are coming off back-to-back AFC West division crowns and have an impressive eight-game winning streak against the Chargers. The offense is stacked with talent but they are being led by a first-year starting quarterback with a small sample size of playing time to judge from. The defense has been rebuilt and all 11 guys have yet to see the field at the same time throughout the preseason. They have weapons on defense, but they are unproven as to how all the new pieces will come together under the pressure of regular season game action.
In Kansas City, I think this spread is too big in favor of the Chargers, in fact, I don’t think the Chargers should be favored. Since Andy Reid and crew came to K.C. In 2013, the Chiefs are 8-2 against the Chargers and have been kryptonite to Philip Rivers.
Philip Rivers has a 76.3 passer rating, 12 TDs, and 14 INTs vs Bob Sutton's Chiefs defense -- The Chargers are 2-8 in those games.
— Gary McKenzie (@Super_G_Chiefs) September 4, 2018
We talk about how Bob Sutton owns Derek Carr, but Carr isn't the only AFC West QB Sutton has owned.
The average point differential in those eight straight Chiefs victories is 12 points. While there are a lot of questions with the Chiefs defense and Mahomes this season, it’s safe to say that Coach Reid and Coach Sutton own the Chargers.
Nationally the Chiefs are being doubted by many and the questions far outweigh their history. The questions with the young QB and defense as a whole has led the national narrative all offseason. It’s no surprise, then, the Chiefs are three-point underdogs to start the season. Depending on how the Eric Berry news goes this week, I doubt the number stays at three through gameday. I think by gameday the number will drop slightly, so my pick is to jump on the Chiefs at +3 today.
For the over/under bet I would take the over but that 47.5 is a great opening number. I expect Mahomes to have a slow first half as he controls his emotions from his first opening day start, and then have a big second half. I expect the defense to be solid but give up points so I’m looking at a 30-20 style game. But a field goal goes wrong for either team and there goes the over. This is a week that I would stay away from that bet.
I’ll be reviewing the point spread and over/under for every game this season, so stay tuned each Wednesday for those articles. I hope you stuck with it after the quick lesson in the numbers. Going forward I expect everyone to have a basic understanding so we can just get straight into the game. I hope you enjoy the review, and may the odds be ever in your favor!