Why the Kansas City Chiefs might actually look to trade down

Chiefs have needs that likely are not solved by trading up. Veach and friends may be more inclined to move back.

Speculation has run rampant that the Kansas City Chiefs are moving their way up in the 2018 NFL Draft to target a player, much rumored to be someone like Central Florida defensive back Mike Hughes.

However, the Chiefs may be better served staying put at 54 or even moving back, adding much needed depth to the roster as possible and going forward for victory from there. Over the past couple weeks, various reliable draft resources have let a peak into the value and where the Chiefs may be targeting the upcoming draft.

Check out the following from Peter King’s Monday Morning Quarterback column from this week:

"“There’s an inordinate number of teams very high that I believe will want to trade down, and perhaps for only moderate value because of the strength of the second and third rounds and the thinness of the first round.”"

Or there’s Matt Miller’s commentary from an interview on 610 Sports in which the Bleacher Report columnist discusses the draft’s depth.

"“Corner is very deep, especially when you do get into the third round. you might be looking guys you may have had a 1st or 2nd round film grades on and then they fall for a reason. maybe it’s injuries, maybe it’s off the field, maybe they just don’t quite fit your size metrics. You can definitely get some value there.”"

One final note here, as weird at it sounds the strength of this draft is 75-150.

Hairs split those "grades" and I was surprised at how many I wanted to fit into the top 100. https://t.co/n1h2xPxHzO
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) April 21, 2018

CBSSports.com ranks nine corners that will hear their names from the end of the first round to the end of the third, between Isaiah Oliver at 29th overall to Carlton Davis at 96th. Eric Galko of Optimum Scouting has a staggering 10 corners ranked in that same range. Matt Miller of Bleacher Report ‘only’ values seven corners with grades near the end of round one to the conclusion of round three.

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Why would they move up and what would they move up for? I can see them targeting a defensive lineman (no one except for Jones is under contract past this season). The idea of finding a really athletic defensive tackle or 3-4 defensive end could be a great fit. Is there a great impact pass rusher on the board when round two starts and gets going? Do the Chiefs want to find a top shelf interior offensive lineman to help replace Mitch Morse and contribute at left guard.

Armed with this information, I don’t anticipate the Chiefs aggressively moving up, at least, not for a corner. Could they move up for an edge rusher that has fallen? Perhaps. Could they move up for an athletic defensive lineman? Of the trade up scenarios, this I believe to be the most likely. And with that, we are off with the mock drafts that will mock all the other mock drafts.

Round 2 (No. 54): Nathan Shepherd, DT, Fort Hays State (KS)

The D2 athletic defensive lineman really emerged with strong performances in the all star game evaluation process including holding his own during positional drills at the Senior Bowl. Shepherd measured 6-5/ 315 pounds at the combine, allowing him to be a player that would fit in the Chiefs current scheme either at defensive end or pushed inside.

Obviously, there will be a learning curve coming from a smaller school for the Hays product. However, beyond Chris Jones and recently signed Xavier Williams (two year contract), every other defensive lineman is a free agent after the upcoming 2018 season. Shepherd could rotate and learn, especially early, aiding to keep not only himself, but veteran Allen Bailey fresh through the season. Fresh legs along the defensive line help in stopping the run and rushing the passer.

Round 3 (No. 78): Dorance Armstrong, EDGE, Kansas

Was not specifically intending to target products from local schools in the first picks but it worked out that way. Armstrong is a true junior (only three years removed from high school) and projects as a true edge player. Armstrong has flashed ability at stopping both the run and the pass at Kansas, showing full effort and never appearing to take a play off. Production slipped his junior season, due in part he was perhaps the only D1 player on the defense in 2017.

Armstrong will need to add weight and strength before he’s truly ready to contribute on a down by down scenario for the Chiefs. He’s a good athlete and has good size for the position.

Much like the aforementioned defensive line, questions past 2018 abound. Ford is a free agent and Justin Houston’s contract ‘flips’ after this season. (He’s significantly cheaper to release then to keep for the first time since he signed his contract. He would save the Chiefs $14 million in 2019 and another $7 million in 2020.) Depending on what the Chiefs do with 2017 second round pick Tanoh Kpassagnon, the Chiefs have both a short term contributor need and long term starter need at edge rusher.

Round 3 (No. 86): Rashaan Gaulden, CB, Tennessee

It is readily apparent the Chiefs are going to take a corner with at least one of their top picks in this draft. And make no mistake, there are a slew of cornerbacks in the 2018 draft that will hear their name called between the start of round two and the conclusion of round three.

Gaulden had begun to climb boards until he posted a less then steller 40 yard dash at the combine (4.6) As was said before, there are a slew of corners in this position. Tennessee over the past couple seasons failed to win many football games but was able to produce players that contributed at the NFL level (Alvin Kamara comes to mind). Gaulden, while not likely a Kamara like producer, could be a nice value.

Experienced playing in man and playing a bit of zone, Gaulden can come in and contribute at depth initially and possibly eventually challenge Amerson (or Steven Nelson) for the starting spot. Gaulden is a guy that shows better on tape then he does in underwear.

Round 4 (No. 122): Kyzir White, SS, West Virginia

Chiefs have an obvious need both at depth and contribution at safety. White’s game and value will be in the team that holds the pick when it comes up. Athletically gifted, White can play almost to physical at times as a ‘strong safety’ and at times doesn’t quite play up to his athleticism as a centerfielder as a ‘free safety’. Has great size for the position (6 -2/ 215) and can contribute in the box quickly (which is why he’s available in this mock draft in round four).

White’s older brother is Kevin White, wide receiver with the Bears. If White can pick up the nuances of playing the ‘box’ safety in the Chiefs defense, Eric Berry can concentrate on playing away from the line, intercepting passes.

Round 4 (No. 124): Durham Smythe, TE, Notre Dame

Chiefs want a tight end and likely a blocking tight end. At Notre Dame was primarily a blocking tight end but showed at the Senior Bowl the ability to run pass routes and could catch passes. Kelce is beginning to get old in NFL standards (29) and this would allow the Chiefs to put Smythe along the line and kick Kelce out into the slot (imagine that coverage mismatch).

Round 6 (No. 196): Skyler Phillips, G/C, Idaho State

Big kid from small school that produced Jared Allen. Has played all over the offensive line at Idaho State but will move inside for the Chiefs. Kansas City has concerns at left guard and center both short and long term. Big strong kid. Sixth round is where the Chiefs found current right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and new Texans guard Zach Fulton.

Round 7 (No. 233): Tremon Smith, CB, Central Arkansas

Productive and fast small school product has really ‘risen’ up the boards late in the process. Chiefs are known to be a team that’s interested. As was noted prior, Chiefs have depth issues both short and long term at the position, so nabbing a guy that can provide depth is valuable. Willing tackler and confident player, Smith needs time to refine technique and acclimate to the NFL speed before you’d expect him to be ready to regularly contribute.

7 (243)- Alex McGough, QB, Florida International

Chiefs have worked him out and had a visit. McGough is good enough to carry a clipboard for the duration of his four year rookie contract making very little money in NFL terms and allows the Chiefs to use savings to address depth at other positions. NFL teams have shown willingness to trade for Andy Reid coached QB’s, so perhaps McGough is a valuable trade piece in a few years to a team needing a young backup.

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