Patrick Mahomes is really the only thing that matters for the Chiefs
By Matt Conner
The Kansas City Chiefs can add players here and there, but really, the only thing that really matters is how well Patrick Mahomes fares as a starter.
In the end, only one thing really matters: how well Patrick Mahomes performs as starting quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Sure, the Chiefs have invested millions in Sammy Watkins and millions more in Anthony Hitchens. They’ve traded away Marcus Peters and placed the leftover hope in Kendall Fuller. They’ve replaced Derrick Johnson and Ron Parker. They’ve taken chances on David Amerson and Damien Williams. They’ll also introduce an entire new draft class of rookies in a few weeks.
None of this matters.
Yes, there are some issues. And yes, there are some exciting additions. But at least, speaking proportionally, everything pales in comparison to the baton hand-off that’s been in the works for well over a calendar year. With the official trade of Alex Smith and the spotlight placed on Mahomes, the Chiefs have made a move that will cause seismic shifts in the organization’s ability to perform.
Moves for the main move
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Perhaps this is why the Chiefs have put in such strong efforts to surround Mahomes with as much talent as physically possible. It’s likely the Chiefs could have gotten by with the wide receivers already in house—with Travis Kelce at tight end, Tyreek Hill running deep routes and Chris Conley, Demarcus Robinson, Jehu Chesson and De’Anthony Thomas rounding out some options. Even with Albert Wilson gone, the Chiefs already had a nice young stable of draft investments who need reps to grow.
Instead, Brett Veach went out and grabbed the best available wide receiver (sorry Allen Robinson, but it’s true) on the market. He’s also invited others to visit in slot receiver Kendall Wright and tight end Ben Watson—signs that Veach might not be done adding more pass catchers to a team that already has to feed plenty of mouths.
That’s because Veach knows one thing matters most: Mahomes’ ability to perform.
Example 1: Jimmy Garoppolo
Midway through the 2017 regular season, Adam Schefter broke major news with a late October shocker: the New England Patriots had finally traded quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to the San Francisco 49ers. After years of flirting with trading Tom Brady’s back-up, Bill Belichick pulled the trigger and turned the chapter, giving the Niners their supposed franchise QB in the process.
Garoppolo was traded just a bit before Halloween, but no quarterback should step right in and start without getting to know the playbook a bit. The Niners gave him the entire month of November before starting Garoppolo for the final five games of the year. Given that time frame, the 49ers basically started three different quarterbacks over each third of the season. Check out how each measured up with record as a starter in parentheses)
- C.J. Beathard (1-4): 55% completion rate
- Brian Hoyer (0-6): 58% completion rate
- Jimmy Garoppolo (5-0): 67.5% completion rate
Yes, the Niners were a one-win team heading into December. They were 5-0 down the stretch. No, they didn’t import a Sammy Watkins to partner with him. No, they didn’t suddenly heal up from significant injuries. They made a single change at quarterback and it made all the difference, from offensive ineptitude to an ability to match any opponent strike for strike.
In one move, the defense got more rest than ever. The team played with more confidence than before. The coaching staff could execute more of their game plan.
One guy.
Example 2: Deshaun Watson
Lest you think Garoppolo is an outlier, let’s look at a more familiar situation.
During the 2017 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans selected Deshaun Watson two picks after the Kansas City Chiefs traded up to get Patrick Mahomes. For a team with plenty of talent on offense and defense, it was necessary to finally step up and take a quarterback in the hopes of finding a starter after trying an odd circus of options like Tom Savage, Brock Osweiler and more.
Bill O’Brien did his best to stave off starting a rookie in the name of some apparent need to keep them at bay, but the Texans’ QB situation was so bad that Watson ended up subbing into the first game of the season. He never looked back.
Unfortunately, Watson’s season was cut short by an ACL injury suffered during practice that forced him to miss the entire second half of the season.
- Deshaun Watson (3-3): 62% completion rate
- Tom Savage (1-6): 56% completion rate
- T.J. Yates (0-3): 48.5% completion rate
While Watson wasn’t undefeated as a rookie, his productivity was actually light years beyond Garoppolo in terms of offensive impact. In 5 games for the Niners, Garoppolo had 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. In 6 starts for the Texans, Watson had 18 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. And after lingering among the division leaders in the AFC South in the season’s first half, Watson’s injury started a skid that led to a basement-dwelling 4-12 record.
Back to Mahomes
There’s no way of knowing if Patrick Mahomes is the real deal, a la Watson or Garoppolo, but here’s what’s important: everyone says that he is. Clark Hunt says he is. Brett Veach says he is. Andy Reid says he is. His teammates say the same.
More importantly, a lot of people have staked their livelihoods on the belief that Patrick Mahomes is the real deal.
If Mahomes isn’t another young quarterback bust, of which there are plenty, and instead is the next face of the franchise, then the Chiefs are going to enjoy a seismic shift in a positive direction. That’s bad news for the rest of the AFC considering that the team was already the class of the AFC West these last two seasons.
There might be holes in various places and positions labeled as “concerns” or “needs,” but let’s be clear about what Mahomes’s potential will allow them to do. Without Garoppolo, the Niners were a single win team. Without Watson, the Texans won 1 more game in 9 contests. With them, they could compete (and beat) anyone in the NFL.
Next: Explaining the Chiefs moves at RB
With Andy Reid at the helm and a potential seismic shift forward at quarterback, the Chiefs might just make the leap we’ve all been waiting for.