Statistical overview and predictions of Chiefs free agent additions

With Brett Veach at the helm, you can never be quite sure of what might happen next. Here we take a guess on the outcome of decisions so far.

Looks like it’s that time of the year. The draft is just a little under a month away, and the free agency dust has settled. There were a couple moves the Kansas City Chiefs made that might be a surprise to some. At this point in free agency, it’s unlikely the Chiefs make any more significant signings until after the draft. Though with Brett Veach, you can never be quite sure.

Anyway, to kick things off, lets start with the first move the Chiefs made during free agency. It started off with the Chiefs re-signing special team stalwarts De’Anthony Thomas and Terrance Smith. Neither is a particularly noteworthy signing, but both should be valuable contributors on special teams.

Thomas took a majority of his snaps at gunner and punt returner, taking over for Tyreek Hill in the latter. Smith had the 2nd most snaps on special teams behind only Anthony Sherman, and is the top coverage player on special teams.

Now that we got the introduction out of the way, let’s get to the main point in this article.

Sammy Watkins, 3 years $48 million

I’m not sure if anyone saw this coming, but if they did they should have let me know. I would have already put in my pre-order for the next Madden game. Watkins’ deal suggests the Chiefs were not messing around when targeting him, and this is backed up by Veach’s comments. In a press conference Veach mentioned that Watkins was at the top of their free agency list, and even attempted to trade for him last offseason.

The deal gives Mahomes a top end No. 2 receiver next to Tyreek Hill, assuming he can stay healthy. Turning in his 2nd fully healthy season, Watkins managed 593 yards on 39 receptions to go along with 8 touchdowns. Forget about being a No. 2, however, since Watkins is just 24 years old and still has the potential to be a legit No. 1 receiver.

That now makes three big mouths to feed on offense with Hill, Watkins, and Travis Kelce streaking down the field. I wouldn’t expect a massive jump in the stat box from last season. But I think Watkins can pretty easily be expected to pull in around 50 receptions for 760 yards, and 6 touchdowns.

Anthony Hitchens, 5 years $45 million

The next biggest signing of the offseason came on the same day as the Chiefs searched for their replacement for Derrick Johnson. Hitchens had played mostly OLB in a 4-3 for the Dallas Cowboys, but began to switch to ILB after injuries to Sean Lee and others, and he found a home there. He’s another young guy with plenty of room to grow, and there’s a lot to like about him.

Hitchens graded out as the No. 22 linebacker in all of football last season by Pro Football Focus. Particularly noteworthy was his run-stopping ability. He was consistently observed as an astute reader of the backfield, and rarely let runners get past him. Reminiscent of the man he’s being tasked to replace, Hitchens showed an uncanny ability to knife his way through blockers to get to the running back.

He also showed a willing, albeit raw pass rushing ability. He’s not nearly the same level of player in regards to pass coverage as Johnson. But he’s far more experienced than Ragland or any other ILB currently on the team. My prediction for Hitchens is to expect about 105 total tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 interception.

Dustin Colquitt, 3 years $7.5 million

Colquitt returns as the Chiefs punter for the next 3 seasons and potentially the rest of his career. With the release of Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson, Colquitt becomes the longest tenured member of the Chiefs by far. He’s consistently been one of the better punters in the league, regularly spotting balls inside the opponents 20-yard line. Staying home on a team friendly deal makes this all the sweeter. 60 punts for 2700 yards, 45 yards/punt, 35 inside opponent’s 20.

Anthony Sherman, 1 year $2 million

Sherman is returning for his 6th season with the Chiefs. An always reliable contributor on special teams, and blocking for the likes of Jamaal Charles and Kareem Hunt on offense. Sherman managed to obtain his 1st touchdown in nearly 3 seasons in the final week of 2017. A solid contributor in all phases of the game as one of the few fullbacks in the league. 4 rushes for 8 yards, 5 receptions for 35 yards, 5 tackles.

Chad Henne, 2 years $6.7 million

Patrick Mahome’s backup and mentor for the next two years will be former Miami Dolphin and Jacksonville Jaguar Chad Henne. As a 9-year veteran and experienced QB mentor, Henne is an excellent addition to the team. There were a lot of questions on who exactly would end up being the Chiefs backup QB this season heading into the offseason, and I think we can leave it fairly satisfied. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chiefs draft a No. 3 QB late in the draft, but there is no debate on who the backup will be. 5/9, 55 yards.

Xavier Williams, 2 years $2.71 million

The Chiefs decided not to re-sign nose tackle Bennie Logan. That left the Chiefs without a true nose tackle on the roster. While a little undersized for the spot, Xavier Williams put in 249 snaps at the position last season for the Arizona Cardinals and posted positive grades in both run and pass rush support. Another position the Chiefs may end up targeting in the draft, but until then, he will be the presumptive starter. The previously mentioned Logan logged over 500 snaps in the position last season so it will be interesting to see how Williams performs in a larger role. 35 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 pass deflection.

Jordan Devey & Damien Williams, 1 year 880K & 1 year $1.5 million

I don’t expect much this year from either of these signings. Devey is returning to be a backup at all interior line positions, and Williams is currently slated to be the #4 running back on the roster. It’s possible he could end up beating out both Spencer Ware and/or Charcandrick West if he impresses in training camp and preseason. But it’s likely he may end up with the C.J. Spiller treatment this season and be the Chiefs designated back-backup running back. 8 games played and 1 start for Devey, 12 rushes for 45 yards and 4 receptions for 36 yards for Williams.

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