Chiefs trade rumors: Does Alex Smith to Jacksonville Jaguars make sense?

Let’s begin with the price because nothing else really matters in this instance. If the Chiefs were ever going to deviate from a meticulous plan that has clearly been mapped out and executed on point so far, it would require a payment worthy of wadding up months (years, even?) of planning. Would Jacksonville really pay that much?

Let’s rewind a few years. Alex Smith was coming off of a nice couple of seasons for the San Francisco 49ers but it felt like the Chiefs were bidding against themselves when general manager John Dorsey struck a deal to send two second round selections in consecutive years to the 49ers for Smith. Dorsey knew from the outset that he had to get his quarterback, and that investing in an unknown commodity wasn’t going to help stabilize a franchise with the worst record in football. So he paid the price.

Four years later, the Chiefs look ready to win in spite of Smith. That’s the popular belief for many Chiefs fans (note: I do not believe that one bit, but I have to at least acknowledge popular opinion). Pro Bowlers abound on both sides of the ball. The replacement has been drafted in Patrick Mahomes. Dynamic wide receivers capable of stretching the field are already on the roster and just need a quarterback to open up the offense. One year from now, we’re all likely witnessing the passing of the torch.

Why would the Chiefs abandon their well-conceived plan? A second round pick. Next year, Smith will be a 34-year-old quarterback who doesn’t run as much as he used to and the Chiefs might lose him for nothing. If Smith were allowed to play out his final season of his deal, then the Chiefs would receive a third round compensatory pick, but financials will likely cause the Chiefs to try to trade Smith or release him outright. Either way, one year from now, the return will either be zero or middling draft assets.

But what if the Jags made a bold move in the present, one intended to get Smith a year early. If the Chiefs were offered a first round pick right now, they have to at least consider the possibility, right?