Turnover differential will be critical for Kansas City Chiefs in 2017
By Matt Conner
Once again, turnover differential will be a key factor for the Chiefs success in 2017, especially after experiencing significant changes.
Looking back over Andy Reid’s first four full seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs, there’s a predictable rhythm in play between one particular stat and the team’s final record: turnover differential. For the most part, Reid has enjoyed great success with K.C., making the playoffs in three of his first four years. The only year he didn’t make it was 2014 when, not surprisingly, the Chiefs completely fell apart when it came to that special category.
Let’s take a quick look back:
2013
Final Record: 11-5
Playoffs: Yes
Turnover Differential: +18
Andy Reid’s first year as the Chiefs head coach got off to a blazing start as the team reeled off 9 consecutive wins. They faded down the stretch, including a horrific meltdown against the Indianapolis Colts in the first round of the playoffs, but the groundwork was laid for continued success.
The Chiefs finished at No. 2 overall in the NFL with a +18 turnover differential, just behind the Seattle Seahawks (+20). They recovered five more fumbles than they gave up that season and the secondary was electric with an incredible 21 interceptions. It was a total team effort as several players had at least two INTs apiece: Ron Parker, Eric Berry, Marcus Cooper, Derrick Johnson, Quintin Demps, Sean Smith. Tamba Hali was also a monster, adding an interception to go with his five forced fumbles and 11 sacks.
2014
Final Record: 9-7
Playoffs: No
Turnover Differential: -3
This year is quite the anomaly on Andy Reid’s record, although the record is only slightly worse than it was every other year. The season began on a heartbreaking note, a devastating loss to the horrific Tennessee Titans (their first of two TOTAL wins in 2014). It’s also not a coincidence that Eric Berry was lost for much of this season.
What’s interesting looking back at this defensive unit is wondering how the Chiefs went from everyone making plays on the ball to no one making plays. Interceptions fell from 21 the previous season to only 6, and the Chiefs forced only 14 total turnovers. If your turnover differential is -4 and Alex Smith is your quarterback, you know something is wrong with your defense.
Even in a year where Justin Houston had 22 sacks, the Chiefs couldn’t force a turnover. Even weirder, Kurt Coleman had one half of the team’s interceptions. Kurt. Coleman.
2015
Final Record: 11-5
Playoffs: Yes
Turnover Differential: +14
Ah, back at the top of the NFL leaderboard. Another year at second in turnover differential also meant the Chiefs were experiencing playoff glory for the first time in a long time. It’s no surprise that the Chiefs return to forcing takeaways (and limiting their own) led them to their first playoff win (over the Houston Texans) in years.
The arrival of Marcus Peters was the biggest story here, a rookie corner who led the league with 8 interceptions and made his first Pro Bowl. More importantly, everyone else chimed in, too, with Derrick Johnson, Eric Berry, Sean Smith, Justin Houston, Josh Mauga and Ron Parker all grabbing multiple interceptions.
2016
Final Record: 12-4
Playoffs: Yes
Turnover Differential: +16
This season, the Chiefs actually led the NFL in turnover differential after finishing No. 2 over two of the last three seasons. Consequently, the Chiefs had a first round bye in the playoffs and finished with their first AFC West title since 2010.
Several Chiefs forced fumbles all season long and Marcus Peters and Eric Berry combined for 10 interceptions. Daniel Sorensen enjoyed his best season for the Chiefs with three interceptions and three fumble recoveries of his own and was rewarded with a nice four-year extension in the offseason.
2017
It won’t always be this way. Some teams have the ability to turn the ball over and not sweat the outcome as much because a team’s offense is particularly loaded. Ask the Green Bay Packers if they ever feel defeated when their offense commits a turnover of some kind. If and when the Chiefs make the switch from the more controlled (and predictable) Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes under center, the correlation might not look as direct as it does now.
While the tight relationship between turnover differential and the Chiefs’ ultimate success might change in the future it will not change at all in 2017. In fact it might even be more important this year than ever before. An offense that already struggles to move the chains at key times lost their most dependable receiver in Jeremy Maclin. They also said goodbye to Jamaal Charles for good this offseason, spurning any future hopes of a return to form. While he was ineffective in recent years, the loss of his potential certainly doesn’t help the Chiefs offense.
While there are hopes for a full-time Tyreek Hill at wide receiver and the arrival of Kareem Hunt to bolster the running game, the Chiefs will still focus on playing intelligent football in 2017—limiting mistakes, capitalizing on opponents’ blunders, etc. All of which makes turnover differential very important this season. Here’s hoping the Berry-Peters combination with the return of Justin Houston and Derrick Johnson from injury will help the Chiefs continue to force opponents to make several mistakes.