Draft Science 2017: Final pieces of an elite Chiefs defense
By Ryan Tracy
The Kansas City Chiefs find themselves interesting position heading into the 2017 draft. They’re able to add to an already respected an impressive defense and possibly become elite.
While anomalies pop up from year to year, the vast majority of Chiefs players’ have athletic profiles that are consistent. This year in ‘Draft Science’, we’re going to look at what those profiles are and where value exists in this draft to get players that fit. To do this, I am using the new 2017 Athletic Matrix NFL Draft Guide from Rogue Analytics.
Looking at scenarios for the 2017 Draft, we huddled with Seth Keysor of ArrowheadPride.com on the Locked on Chiefs podcast today.
Looking to the future
The Chiefs have seen a number of departures this offseason along the defensive front. Dontari Poe signed as free agent with the Super Bowl LI Atlanta Falcons and just recently, the organization released veteran Jaye Howard. When looking to add depth on the defensive line, the five technique defensive ends leave the team several options.
Athletically, the group is headlined by two players very different in the eyes of the public. Jonathan Allen is the highly-touted top prospect along the defensive front in the 2017 draft. He is one of the few who stands out in both athleticism and production. He’s widely recognized as a top-tier player who is able to play in any grand scheme.
open in new tab for full images
Chris Wormley is another player that stands out in several areas. His athleticism and play set him apart from the vast majority of this draft class. For the Chiefs, he displays power and short-area quickness to win on the interior positions playing in the two defensive line roles that Kansas City favors: the base 5-technique and the nickel front 3-technique.
Further down the board, there are options for a more developmental role. They include Montravious Adams, Nazair Jones, and even Treyvon Hester. Malik McDowell could be a specimen in the Chiefs DE role but carries so much baggage he may not be an option for Kansas City.
Man in the middle
When looking at the departure of Dontari Poe, in particular, this class’s offering of nose tackles is fairly limited.
Heading the top of the list of nose tackles prospects is Elijah Qualls. Qualls takes after both Dontari Poe as well as Danny Shelton, another former Washington Husky. He is a fireplug of a man that bring copious amounts of power and strength. He produces the highest power grade in the class, although it pales in comparison to Poe. The intriguing thing about Qualls is that he exceeds Poe in both explosion and short-area quickness.
Players beyond Qualls offer intrigue but carry risk as well. Larry Ogunjobi, DeAngelo Brown and Vincent Taylor bring athleticism and production behind the line of scrimmage.
Standing on the Edge
The Edge rusher class in the 2017 draft is perplexing. There is a large number of edge rushers that were successful at the college level. There’s a very good mix of players with prototypical athleticism as well as those with consistent production on the field.
However, the problem with this draft class it is that is severely slanted towards a 4-3 defensive end roll. The number of players that can actually stand up and play an outside linebacker role leaves the Kansas City Chiefs with somewhat of a dilemma.
Do they look to bring in a natural 3-4 outside linebacker or do they do another Dee Ford experiment and try to convert a player that is clearly meant to have his hand in the dirt?
When looking at the athletic profile all of the players that’s it the 3-4 OLB roll, it’s clear that there are two types of athletes. They mirror the athletes in the AFC West. On the profile spider above, you can see by the highlight points that Justin Houston is extremely powerful yet still has some short-area quickness. Conversely, Von Miller has excellent short area quickness but less power. The question will be: do the Chiefs covet a true 3-4 outside linebacker?
In my opinion, the player with the most athleticism and upside is the prospect that has played the position of the least. Based on his relative newness to playing defense, his extreme athleticism and (frankly) his family ties, T.J. Watt may be the best fit in Kansas City as a true outside linebacker.
Betting on the Boundary
The cornerback group in this draft class is deep and varied. It is chock-full of the tall and lanky defenders that John Dorsey and the Chiefs covet. There is a large group who possess athleticism traits both in speed and short-area quickness that surpasses the current Chiefs corners. When it comes production which John Dorsey relies heavily on evaluating cornerbacks, a largely separate group of players emerges.
When looking at athleticism amongst the cornerbacks there are several that stand out as upgrades in Kansas City. Phillip Gaines is currently the Chiefs most athletic CB. Unfortunately, his injury list continues to grow and he has been unable to stay on the field. If the Chiefs want another long corner with both short-area quickness and deep speed, there’s no better candidate than Kevin King from the University of Washington. King may have taken the spot previously occupied by Sidney Jones. Jones is the best corner in this draft but suffered Achilles tear at his pro day.
The production metrics of the cornerback class points in another direction. It highlights the work of players who, by and large, are not at the top of the athleticism chart. Players like Marshon Lattimore, Lewis Jordan, Cordrea Tankersley, Quincy Wilson and Tre’Davious White are part of this group.
When evaluating cornerbacks, the Chiefs rely heavily on production metrics in both passes broken up and interceptions. When looking at the HAWK rates, which combines the two, versus the number of plays on the field; it appears a compromise may have to be made.
Marcus Peters is the definition of that same compromise. Peters is not among the more athletic corners in the NFL but he has proven he is among the elite. His aggression and instincts make up for his shortcomings in athleticism. Looking back at his college career, he was near the top in categories such as HAWK rate, plays behind the line of scrimmage and turnover production. Marshon Lattimore would be the selection in this class that mirrors the risk based on his production.
Wrapping it all up
Tomorrow, we will conclude the draft science series with my scheme-specific draft board for the Kansas City Chiefs.
As Always, If you’d like to get a copy of the Athletic Matrix NFL Draft Guide, you can head over to Rogueapc.com